MARKET PERSPECTIVE

By J Mulraj

Oct 10 – 16, 2026

His double standards stand exposed

Image created using ChatGPT

The book ‘1984’, written by George Orwell, is a dystopian novel set in a fictional totalitarian future world. This world consists of three superpower blocks, called Oceania, Eurasia and Eastasia, who are constantly at war with each other, with any two opposing the third. The alliances are constantly shifting, with no combination able to vanquish the other. The purpose of the constant wars is to keep their populations compliant. One of the tools to retain control in this dystopian world is the language ‘doublespeak’ which is designed to distort reality and corrupt thought.

Examples of doublespeak are the phrases ‘War is Peace’ and ‘Ignorance is Strength’. It is the ability to say and do inherently contradictory things.

George Orwell would have been proud to see how well US President has understood and implemented doublespeak. Whilst, on the one hand, Trump publicly berates, and imposes punitive sanctions on, countries like India for buying Russian oil and so helping Russia in its war against Ukraine, he, on the other hand, buys 35 million barrels of diesel in a recent deal with Putin.

India’s justification to buy Russian crude is that it has to buy energy resources at the best price to serve its population of 1.4 b. people, the largest in the world. Trump’s justification to buy Russian diesel is to deuce the price of diesel (essential to move tractors and start heavy equipment in the farm belt, which is Trump’s political base). Diesel prices have shot up primarily due to the supply chain shock from the Iran war (initiated by Trump) as well as the lunacy of destruction of energy infrastructure in the Russia- Ukraine conflict. A conflict that was prodded by USA, when President Biden encouraged NATO to expand Eastwards (contravening the agreement with Russian president Gorbachev not to) and to admit Ukraine as a member. Of course such a step was a red line to Russia, because NATO missiles, positioned in Ukraine, as permitted by NATO, would be impossible to defend against.

Trump has miscalculated and now resorts to Orwellian doublespeak and double standards. He has his eye on the coming mid term election, to be held on Nov 5 and in which he may lose a majority on one or both Legislative chambers. As per Labour Department cost of fuel oil has risen a humungous 74% toy, Gasoline 34%, Airfares 22%, and Sep CPI is up 0.6% m-o-m.

The deal for diesel supply with Russia was quickly followed by a cessation of intelligence data to Ukraine. Perhaps this totally unnecessary war may come to an end. There really ought to be a soul searching amongst global leaders whether encouraging NATO membership for Ukraine at the cost of millions of lives on both sides, at a cost of billions in wasted munitions and destruction of infrastructure and at the cost of a bleak future for Ukraine whose fertility rate has dropped below the level needed to sustain it’s society.

This is not the first example of Trump’s Orwellian doublespeak, now will it be his last. This piece in Politico magazine gives several instances. Such as, for example, Trump calling his predecessor, President Obama, the most ignorant President in American history (in July 2016) and then stating that he greatly respected him (November 2016). The article cites many more.

The US remains entangled in the Iran war, paused momentarily till Mid Term elections are over, and there is no forseeable off-ramp in sight. If Trump wishes, after Mid Terms, to continue with the Orwellian doublespeak that ‘War is Peace’ he will need to have the ability to fund the wars.

The current 30 year US Bond yield is 5.48%. As per this Kobeissi letter, $7.5 trillion falls due for repayment in 2027. This will face a problem as several countries are reducing their exposure to US Treasury holdings, including Japan, the largest holder, and, recently, Finland, which has the world’s largest Sovereign Wealth Fund.

One hopes that the cost of waging war is so high that common sense replaces jingoism to dissuade conflicts.

Last week the BSE Sensex ended at 74729, up 2257 points over the week.

Last week, Trump suspended the PERM (Permenant Labour Certification Programme) for India’s most reputed IT companies, TCS, Infosys, Wipro and HCL Technologies, as well as US companies Microsoft and Adobe. PERM is a step towards obtaining a Green Card, and Trump accuses these companies of fraud, in abusing the system.

Another of Trump’s Orwellian doublespeak! He forgot his own words to Infosys, in February 2020, when Infosys invested $ 525 m. in USA and created 24000 jobs “well, thank you. Great job. I know your company. Great job”.

He forgot, too, that, in October 2026, he publicly honoured Microsoft Chairman, Satya Nadella, for his contribution to America’s science and technology. MS has been suspended for abuse of the PERM programme.

Trump’s doublespeak, and absence of thought before stating something is brought out by this fact – TCS had, much prior to the PERM suspension, reduced its PERM application. Its PERM approvals in 2024 had dropped by, hold your breath, 98%, from 1804 to just 2.

If advisors to the US President are unable to present data and facts to him properly then maybe there IS a skill gap that needs to be filled!

Or, more likely, this is Trump’s pre- MidTerms rhetoric to portray himself as a protector of American jobs. The fact is that, between 2008-2025, the top 5 Indian IT firms received less than 4% of the 1.45 million certificates issued by USA, worldwide.

By George! That’s classic doublespeak.

Given continuing wars, high national debt, in several countries, rising debt yields, and increasing crude oil /derivative prices, it is advisable for investors to rein in expectations and be very cautious.

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Comments can be emailed to: jmulraj@asiaconverge.com
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