MARKET PERSPECTIVE
By K Mulraj
Feb 17- 23, 2026, 2026
Which poses a huge problem for India, the most populous country
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AI is like a tiger that all must ride. It has both short term (negative) and long term (positive) connotations. PM Narendra Modi is preparing for an AI future, and has held an AI Impact Summit. At the Summit, Google CEO, Sundar Pichai, has committed to investing US $ 15 b. in an AI hub in Vizagapatnam (https://myind.net/Home/
Nvidia, the leading US graphics processor with a market cap of $ 4.5 trillion, more than India’s GDP, is to partner with AI Funds to fund 500 new startups over the next 12 months.
Private sector company Sarvam, backed by the Government’s IndiaAI Mission, has launched 2 large language models, Sarvam 30B and Sarvam 105B, to compete with the LLMs of Google, OpenAI, Anthropic and the like.
India needs to ride this tiger because, in the short term, the AI models are improving skills at an exponential pace and will soon have the ability to displace people in several industries. India, the world’s most populous country, cannot afford huge layoffs; there would be major social unrest.
AI entrepreneur, 26 yo Matt Shumer, wrote an article ‘Something Big is Happening’ which garnered 100 m. views. Shumer says he doesn’t need to write code anymore; he simply asks the AI agent what he wants and it is done, perfectly. It can now open, on its own, an app it has created, try it out to see how it performs, and, if unsatisfied, can go correct its own code.
Dario Amodei, co-founder and CEO of leading AI company Anthropic, says that AI will be able to replace 50% of entry level jobs within 1-5 years!
Mustafa Suleman, CEO of Microsoft AI, says most white collar jobs will be fully automated within 12-18 months! And Dario Amodei warns that AI could be used to create dangerous weapons, like chemical weapons.
Improvements in AI will, over the medium term, start producing huge gains in productivity which, say proponents of it, will throw up so much wealth that can be used to provide all citizens with USI (Universal Surplus Income) not just UBI ( Universal Basic Income). Proponents say that this would negate loss of jobs, hence income because USI would compensate far more.
Even if this dream of USI becomes possible, one is unsure because loss of jobs robs humans of a purpose for life – a raison de atre.
So the world is heading into dangerous and I chartered territory. The possibility of AI agents becoming rogue, and ungovernable, also exists. Just a handful of human world ungovernable leaders are causing immense harm, and forever wars; if AI robots, with superior intelligence, join in indisciplined Jingoism, with self created weapons, one wonders at out the future.
All world leaders are riding the AI tiger and nobody is talking, as they should, of devising guide rails. Their eyes are mesmerised by visions of unbounded riches.
The Russia Ukraine conflict, which never should have started, has been going on for 4 years. Ukraine has not joined NATO, which was the original cause of the conflict. After deaths and migration of it’s youth, it’s fertility rate has fallen below 1 versus the 2.1 rate needed to sustain a society. Those leaders who egged on Ukraine to seek NATO membership, for no purpose, and those, like Biden and Boris Johnson, who scuttled a peace agreement the warring nations had agreed to, barely 2 months from the beginning of the conflict, should be shuddering at the thought of answering, at the Pearly Gates, for their callous and depraved behaviour.
Trump is heeding the calls of the Dogs of War and is all set to launch an attack on Iran, together with Israel. One aircraft carrier group is already positioned nearby, and another is on the way, in a show of military strength and technological capability.
But warfare has changed.
Today, smaller or weaker nations are using asymmetrical warfare against bigger and stronger barbarians at their gates. Iran threatens to use a combination of drones and hypersonic missiles which course correct and thus difficult to intercept. Trump has to evaluate the effect of one of the missiles hitting an aircraft carrier, on his prospects at the November mid term elections. Perhaps that’s why he has postponed, for a week, commencement of an all out attack. Iran would respond by closing the Strait of Hormuz, which would spike the price of crude oil.
A few months ago, India’s Petroleum Minister had announced the possibility of large oil and gas reserves around the coast of Andamans. Last week this video talks about a large offshore oil discovery made by Oil India Ltd, off the coast of Andamans. Total oil and gas reserves are estimated at $ 20 trillion.
Combined with India’s vast thorium deposits, which is a far safer, and cheaper, alternative to uranium, these developments would result in a sharp reduction of oil imports, and thus stanch the slide of the INR. This, in turn, would make India a more attractive destination for foreign portfolio investors, as their $ returns would not be reduced because of currency depreciation.
Last week the BSE Sensex closed at 82814, for a weekly gain of 188 points.
The negative factors in the coming week would be a commencement of hostilities over Iran, and the inevitable spike in crude oil prices if Iran shuts down the Strait of Hormuz, as it will. But more negative will be the loss of entry level jobs because of AI. The Government has a huge task before it managing this transition.
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Comments may be sent to: jmulraj@asiaconverge.com
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