The govt continues to push other types of Census, but nor for its human population

RN Bhaskar

On 24 JUN 2024, the government announced (https://pib.gov.in/PressReleaseIframePage.aspx?PRID=2028221) that it would soon begin work on the 21st Livestock Census. The Livestock Census is conducted every five years.  But schedules have not been kept. The last such census was in 2019 but released in December 2023 (https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1988609). The 20th Livestock Census can be found here (https://dahd.nic.in/ahs-division/20th-livestock-census-2019-all-india-report).

What about the human Census?

Great news, yes.  But the government remains silent on having a Census for its human population.  Reminders have been sent to the government by several people and organisation.  One such reminder was the one sent by EAS Sarma, former Secretary to the government of India (https://asiaconverge.com/2023/05/eas-sarma-asks-home-ministry-not-to-delay-the-census/). The government has ignored such reminders and appeals.

Effectively, this is the first time, since 1881 that a Census has not been held on time. Says Sarma “It was repeated at the beginning of every succeeding decade without a single instance of interruption, till the present government chose to defer the 2021 Census, presumably in the name of the two difficult Covid spurts during 2020 and 2021.”

Thus, India has just held an election without a Census being put in place. Had the Census data been available, India would have known the exact size of its population, and the total number of voters. Today, there are fears that the entire data relating to votes is riddled with “ghosts” (free subscription — https://bhaskarr.substack.com/p/ghosts-at-the-voting-booth?sd=pf).

With the number of Aadhar cards being inflated, ditto with PAN cards, and the number of deaths continuing to be highly suspect, the Census is urgently needed. It is needed for economic planning, to account for doles that the government has been given out to the “beneficiaries” it has identified, and for cleaning up the audit mess that both Aadhaar and NPCI have created ( Free subscription — https://open.substack.com/pub/bhaskarr/p/where-is-the-ecommerce-regulator).

Livestock Census

In any case, it is good that India is getting its 21st livestock census planned. Like with any Census, there are people who wait eagerly for the latest numbers, to find out which way the wind is blowing in respect of the market for, and availability of, 16 species of animals like Cattle, Buffalo, Mithun, Yak, Sheep, Goat, Pig, Horse, Pony, Mule, Donkey Camel, Dog, Rabbit and Elephant and poultry birds (Fowl, Duck, Turkeys and other poultry birds).

A very interesting number to look out for is the ratio between cows and buffaloes.  The ban on cattle slaughter (more specifically for cows) has meant that more milk producing farmers have begun to opt for buffaloes.  This is especially so in the Hindi belt, where the scourge of “gau rakshaks” (literal translation is protectors of cows) makes the breeding of cows hazardous and unprofitable. While the ratio does not look so alarming based on the 2019 data, this could change very soon.  This is because cows have been made to live a longer life, even if they stray on roads and destroy other farms. The ratios will begin to make sense possibly in the 21st (or the 22nd) survey which has just been announced.

The Economic Census

Another key announcement is that the government will soon launch the Eighth Economic Census (https://www.cmie.com/kommon/bin/sr.php?kall=warticle&dt=20230822093720&msec=700).

As CMIE points out, “the ministry is planning to begin work on the new census to ensure more timely outcomes. India has not had an economic census for nearly a decade. The sixth economic census was conducted in 2013, and its results were released in 2016. The data collection for the seventh economic census started in 2019. However, owing to Covid-19 pandemic data collection got delayed and survey work was completed in 2021. Results of this census are yet be made public.”

Given that the government has not yet released the data relating to the 7th Economic Census, one is not sure about how serious the government really is about this Census either. The present treatment of the 7th Economic Census suggests that people in the government think it is a joke.

Consider the following:

So much of gravity, sanity and transparency.

Other announcements

The government has said that it is considering the 80th round of the National Sample Survey to cover health, domestic travel, and tourism expenditure (https://mospi.gov.in/recent-rounds-0).   This is another survey that has been pending.

The government has also said that it has recently held the 79th Round of Socio Economic Surveys (July 2022 to June 2023 — https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1834261.  This survey appears to be more focused on Ayush services (Ayurveda, Yoga, Naturopathy, Unani, Siddha, Sowa-Rigpa/Amchi and Homoeopathy). The government website (https://mospi.gov.in/recent-rounds-0) explains that this involves a “collection of data for compilation of several SDG indicators through a “Comprehensive Annual Modular Survey (CAMS) . . . The field work of the survey has been completed”.

On 18 June 2024, the government stated (https://pib.gov.in/PressReleaseIframePage.aspx?PRID=2026194) that it would soon release a comprehensive report on the Household Consumption Expenditure Survey (HCES) (2022-24).  This was to have been released earlier.  But, as the PIB states, “due to the emergence of Covid-19 pandemic, the survey of 2020-21 could not be started.”  Meanwhile the government has put out a factsheet of first phase of HCES 2022-24.  It can be downloaded from https://www.mospi.gov.in/sites/default/files/publication_reports/Factsheet_HCES_2022-23.pdf). . The field work of second phase of HCES 2022-24 has commenced from 25 August 2023 and is in progress, says the government.

A comprehensive survey of the services sector is anticipated to be conducted shortly, further expanding the scope of national data collection efforts (https://mospi.gov.in/7-services-sector-statistics).

In conclusion

With such pronouncements and evasions (especially about the Census for India’s population), the old proverb (often ascribed to John Milton) comes to mind – that the path to hell is paved with good intentions.

Without the decadal Census for India’s populations, all other surveys and studies remain incomplete.  All of them depend on the underlying human headcount, and the other information that is collated as part of this exercise.  The government is making the motions of movement and progress, but refuses to work on the most critical document on which much of economic planning depends.

One only hopes that this is not the case.

The author is a senior journalist and researcher

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Do view my latest podcast on the cattle slaughter laws at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ma2JBGQahzw

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