MARKET PERSPECTIVE

By J Mulraj

Feb 28- Mar 5, 2025

The mistakes made by Zelensky

Image created by open art.ai

The title of the column is a line from the song ‘Me and Bobby McGee’ sung by singer songwriter Janis Joplin. Perhaps Ukrainian President Zelensky thought he had nothing to lose,  when he senselessly argued, publicly, in front of American TV media, with Donald Trump, who is possibly the only person in the world with the gravitas to engage with both Putin and Zelensky. Up until the time VP JD Vance interjected to point out, correctly, that since three years of conflict hadn’t resolved anything, it was high time they tried diplomacy, to avoid more deaths. Zelensky was bold (? probably foolish!) enough to be critical, and defiantly asked Vance what he meant by diplomacy, citing failure of a previous diplomatic effort which resulted in the Minsk agreement, to prevent another Russian assault.

Foolish because Zelensky, by being critical of a diplomatic initiative by America to end a war that was destroying his country, looked like he was biting the hand that was feeding him. America had, after all, provided some $350 b. in financial and military aid to Ukraine, without which it would have lost the war in a few days or weeks.

The breaking of the Minsk agreement has two opposing views, described in this post-mortem analysis for anyone interested. Russia’s view is that Ukraine failed to provide, as per the Agreement, greater autonomy to the Russian speaking regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, to assure which he had invaded. In fact, later, former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, had confessed that the West never had any intention of keeping their side of the Minsk agreement. It was merely an effort to delay, to allow Ukraine time for an arms build up.

The illustration shows birds, who have got their freedom from gilded cages and feel they have nothing left to lose. But it’s illusory, for they are still trapped in the room. As is Zelensky. He did, in fact, have a lot to lose.

After the disastrous interaction with Trump, US financial and military aid was cut off to Ukraine. Perhaps worse was the cutting off of the communication ability provided by Starlink, which allowed troops to communicate with the army command and families. Even worse, however, was the ending of satellite based intelligence and analysis, which had given Ukraine advance alerts of military strikes.

Zelensky caved in, agreeing to a negotiated settlement under Trump’s leadership, yet unrealistically insisting that Ukraine not lose any territory. Russia has captured about 20% of its territory.  (Actually, the deal allows Ukraine to retain the rest, for without US help, described above, he Zelensky will certainly lose).

Zelensky appears to have made several errors in the past:

1. By seeking NATO membership knowing that it was a red line for Russia; despite an agreement not to, NATO kept enlarging eastwards. Crossing the red line risked conflict with a far stronger neighbor, which is what happened.
2. By backing out of a negotiated truce agreed to by Russia and Ukraine, two months after the invasion. This was at the behest of then UK PM Boris Johnson, egged on by a US President afflicted with dementia. More than 500,000 Ukrainian lives have since been lost, the burden of which lies on the conscience of Johnson and Biden, who instigated a continuation of war, and of Zelensky, who agreed to their asinine suggestion.
3. Unnecessarily arguing, on open TV, with President Trump and VP Vance, about the worth of US diplomacy! This was the pinnacle of lunacy! Trump is the only person in the world who can try and work on a negotiated end to the war. If Zelensky wanted to make counter points, it ought to have been done in private.

Let’s hope he stops making errors of judgement and that a negotiated settlement to end the war is arrived at. If he insists on NATO membership as a security guarantee, the negotiations will end. This was the starting point of the war.

A NATO membership would need to be passed through the lens of reality.

Russia possesses three different missile systems all of which cannot be intercepted, by virtue of their speed. These include Sarmat, an ICBM with a range of 18,000 kms that can carry 15 warheads, Kinjal, an intermediate range missile that has been tested. It can travel at Mach 10 and hit a target with an accuracy of under 10 meters, even if the target is underground, and Avanguard, a hypersonic glider with a top speed of Mach 27 and carrying a 2 megaton bomb. The Sarmat, though, has failed once in a test.

NATO has no interceptor missile system capable of stopping these. The interceptor missile travels far slower.

The Rusi-Ukraine war reveals the ravages of war and the evil machinations of world leaders who egg others to fight and weaken themselves. Ukraine’s land is one of the most fertile in the world and it is blessed with mineral resources like rare earth minerals. In its quest for seeking the safety of NATO, it has been destroyed because of a leader who made several bad decisions.

The West attempted to weaken Russia, by refusing to heed its several pleas to discuss its objections to NATO membership for Ukraine. With no one willing to discuss, Putin invaded, and is being vilified as an aggressor for doing so. Europe has been financially weakened after losing the cheap energy Russia supplied, forcing them to buy far more expensive LNG, including from USA. China has been the beneficiary of this asinine policy, led by Biden. It has found an ally in Russia, which has the largest nuclear arsenal in the world. It has gained from Europe’s loss of cheap Russian energy. Since the oil/gas comes through overland pipelines, China has reduced its vulnerability of seaborne delivery through the choke point of the Malacca Straits. China has used money for its economic and technological. development even as Biden’s America and EU wasted their financial resources and weapons on Ukraine.

Franz Kafka would never have dreamt of a crazier plot!

At least the voters have more sense. They have voted to oust American, German, French and British leaders who supported the war. Yet the remaining ones, except Victor Orban, continue with their failed approach.

Last week the BSE Sensex gained 1134 points, to end the week at 74332.

It is likely that the senseless Ukraine war should reach a negotiated ceasefire agreement. That will be good news.

But another war is breaking out – a trade war. As a result, oil prices have dropped. Thus far, we have not seen much progress in Trump’s wish to drill, baby, drill. When that happens, oil prices will come down further.

Perhaps Zelensky may be singing another Janis Joplin linr from the song ‘But I’d trade all of my tomorrows for a single yesterday’. Other EU leaders, (like the myopic Keir Starmer who is willing to send frozen Russian funds to Ukraine, an act that will attract a devastating response which can lead to WW3) ought to sing along with him, nostalgically regretting past decisions.

Comments may be sent to jmulraj@asiaconverge.com