Seventeenth century French philosopher Rene Descartes, propounded the dictum ‘I think, therefore I am’, to assert that the very act of human thought serves to prove his existence.

Twenty first centurion Donald Trump has modified the dictum to ‘I can, therefore I will!’ Last week, in an exercise called Southern Spear, the US’s elite Delta Force (used earlier to capture and extract Osama Bin Laden), captured and kidnapped Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife, in a meticulously planned and executed operation, transporting both to New York to stand trial for narco terrorism.

This operation was conducted without Congressional or any international approval, raising apprehensions that Trump may well target other countries, like Greenland or Panama, should he wish to. The justification was that Maduro had been indicted by a US court earlier, and had to be brought to justice.

He can, given America’s financial and military might, coerce smaller nations. Therefore he will! This is raw geopolitics at play!

Venezuela, aided by Royal Dutch Shell, discovered oil in the 1920’s, with reserves of over 300 billion barrels of oil (about 17% of global reserves). More than 100 firms, including large US Corporations, were licensed for oil exploration, until Carlos Perez nationalised them in 1976, and created state owned PDVSA to exploit its reserves.

Venezuela reached its highest oil production in 1998, at 3.5 billion barrels. Venezuelan crude is heavy/extra heavy, and can be processed by refineries having a high Nelson’s Complexity rating of over 14. These include several US refineries, as well as Reliance Industries, whose Jamnagar refinery has a rating of over 21, the highest in the world (which gives RIL the highest refining margins).

The US accuses Venezuela of narco terrorism, claiming it has, in partnership with Hezbollah, set up narco labs in Venezuela. This is alleged, but unproven, yet US provided, as justification for the attack by Delta force and the abduction of President Maduro and his wife, an indictment by a US court accusing him of narco terrorism. The operation was conducted without Congressional permission, (or intimation) and without international sanction. International bodies like the UN have become ineffectual to prevent breaches of the rule of law, and impotent to punish the offenders.

More likely Trump was eyeing Venezuelan mineral wealth. Besides having the largest reserves of crude oil, over 300 b. barrels, Venezuela also has large reserves of natural gas (about 200 tcf), iron ore (over 14 b. tonnes) and gold (officially 160 tonnes but suspected to be around 8000 tonnes).

After this abduction, the world is in grave danger of a breakdown of international rules based order. No country has voiced any protests, nor has any international institution like the United Nations.

If just an unsubstantiated accusation of narco terrorism, or any other, gives legitimacy for a militarily more powerful country to attack a weaker one, bomb it, killing its citizens, and abduct its leader, then the world is in for an orgy of destruction. Trump would probably attempt misadventures in Greenland, in Panama, maybe in Peru, which, too, has large mineral resources like copper, gold, silver, zinc and others. Trump is discussing options on how to acquire Greenland, including military ones.

Other militarily strong countries will pursue similar brazen assaults. China, which has for long sought a reunification with Taiwan, just surrounded the island state of Taiwan in a display of force. It, too, will now feel free to attempt a military takeover, which could trigger a conflict, perhaps WW III. Craziness has no ceiling.

Greenland is governed by Denmark, which is not willing to sell it; nor do residents of the island state wish to become Americans (85% voted against it, in a poll). So Trump’s proposal is thuggery, in complete violation of any and every international law, without even the fig leaf of narco terrorism. Trump wants it for its reserves of some rare earth minerals, and also in preparation for the time the Arctic ice melts sufficiently to create a shipping route. Trump forgets that the US already controls Greenland; it has a military base there.

In this video , Panvel Devyatkin, a non resident fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, talks of the potential danger to the environment.

Such a takeover would likely lead to environmental calamity. The Greenland ice sheet is melting, several times faster than in the ‘90s, and, in melting, it exposes darker rock and ocean that absorbs more heat. If Greenland’s ice sheet fully melts, sea levels would rise 24 feet, which would wipe out New York City and Florida and displace millions! (8.06 in video).

Trump’s disdain for the environment was made more obvious when he recently withdrew US from key climate agreement and 66 climate change bodies, half of them a part of UN. If he extends this disdain to Greenland, and recklessly erodes the ice sheet, he will trigger an environmental Armageddon.

But perhaps Trump may find Peru more enticing. Peru’s reserves of silver, at 140,000 tonnes, 22% of global reserves, are the highest in the world. The present gold to silver price ratio is 59, showing potential upside for silver. Silver is not only an inflation hedge but it also has industrial uses, such as in solar panels. Moreover, should demand for silver go up, its production increase does not immediately follow. Silver is a by- product in the production of copper, zinc, and lead; so the demand for these should concurrently rise.

The market for silver is dominated by paper, rather than by physical, trading. On Comex, the ratio of paper / physical silver contracts is an extremely high 350:1, making it ripe for a squeeze if physical delivery gets scarce. This is likely. As mentioned, silver is a by product of metals like copper. One of the largest copper mines, Grasberg, accounting for 4% of global production, suffered a mud rush, and production has been suspended. Also, China has started licensing silver exports, effective Jan 1, 2026, after introduction of which, export of silver fell 85%. Given the 350:1 paper/physical silver trading on Comex, the squeeze can significantly raise silver price.

The BSE closed the week at 83576, down 2186 points over the week. The geopolitical uncertainty caused by the abduction of President Maduro, plus the imminent collapse, under popular pressure, of the Iranian regime, has shaken investor confidence.

Amongst such depressing events, India is expected to perform well! Its GDP is expected to rise 7.4% this year, the highest growth of any major economy. Kudos to its resilience!

The fall in stock markets last week indicates that investors are not impervious to geopolitics. Thus far they seemed to have remained unperturbed. Any further imperial behavior by Trump would be negatively viewed by global investors and equity markets may go down. But for silver it looks as though the Lone Ranger may be yelling “Yo Ho, Silver, Away”.

Comments may be sent to: jmulraj@asiaconverge.com