Iran invokes spirits of the great Persian empire

By RN Bhaskar and Sakeena Bari Sayyed

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Iran has become the proverbial ugly-duckling-turned-swan.  Its ugly duckling image was a creation of Western media right since the 1950s.  This was because Iran nationalised its oil fields in response to the UK refusing to pay a higher royalty.  The UK refused to accept Iran’s new status as an independent country. Unfortunately, the US, which too is interested in controlling oil producers, found common cause with the UK. Together they devised a coup to frustrate Iran.

But gradually, Iran has emerged as one of the most sober voices in the world.  It has been talking of peace while Israel and USA have been talking of war.  Even when retaliating against the senseless killing of its people by Israel, it focussed only on military targets.  In sharp contrast, USA and Israel have indulged in wanton killing.  Israel has already been convicted of war crimes and ethnic cleansing by the International Court of Justice. The US is complicit in these crimes (https://bhaskarr.substack.com/p/the-dollar-and-the-us-could-stumble).

Some of the most sober and influential voices in the world to castigate the US and Israel.  Listen to John Mearsheimber (https://www.youtube.com/shorts/HUP-VHu6GV4). He points out how the biggest instigator of violence has been Israel. . Or pay heed to Kishor Mahbubani, formerly Singapore’s asbassador to the UN (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oBBcvDQNHR8&t=1s). Or even Tucker Carlson (https://tuckercarlson.com/january-20-2026-morning-note) who has publicly suggested that a nuclear armed Iran is safer for the Middle East than an Iran which has resolved not to produce nuclear arms.

But the poison Israel has injected in the Middle East has destabilised the region.  It has refused to submit to IAEA inspections.  It has waged more wars and killings in that region against more countries than any other nation.  Unfortunately, lately, the US is governed not by its Congress, but by the Knesset.

However, Iran has emerged as:

• Powerful, one of the most restrained countries in the world. Unlike Israel, Iran has been talking of peace consistently.
• A country which voluntarily has refused to create a nuclear device despite having the ability to do so.
• A nation that has thwarted attempts by USA, UK and Israel to destabilise it despite several attempted coups.
• One of the most formidable military powers in the Middle East, yet abjuring any covetousness for occupying new territory.

Will there be a war?

Today, the US and Israel are threatening Iran of military action.  It threatens to destroy Iran.  The danger is that it could lead to a third world war. At the time of writing, it appears that despite a massive build-up of troops, warships, planes and weaponry, there will not be any war. But the past record of Israel and the US suggests that both could provoke global destruction.  Fingers crossed.

The US has moved three fully armed aircraft carrier into the seas near Iran. Refuelling planes and heavy equipment planes have been parked nearby. But the Middle East is not with the US this time. The first indication is evident from the refusal by Middle East countries of the US request that the American bases could be used for supporting the war (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R2F883xfhTE).

This is after the recent attempt of instigating a riot in Iran failed.  The consequence was that Israel, and the US rallied the Iranian people in support of their government.  Israel was left exhausted and it lost its vast arsenal of subversive agents in Iran (timeline 33:40 to 35 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R2F883xfhTE).

The riots fizzled out

In the recent riots in Iran, the US and other market players hammered down the value of the Rial. The devalued currency hurt Iranian merchants. Then sleeper cells were activated to foment a revolt. The revolt was peaceful.  US and Israeli handlers then activated new sleeper agents to shoot at common citizens and security people. Arms had already been smuggled in for this purpose.

That caused retaliatory fire from Iran security personnel. Iran promptly shut down telecom links and the internet. Unable to communicate the sleeper cell instigators were lost.  The riots subsided. Then, thousands of Starlink connections became active. Evidently, they had been smuggled in by the CIA and Mossad to create an additional communication alternative. But that plan was also botched, when Starlink connections were disabled (they were thought to be impregnable).

Iran then began the systematic identification of each Starlink node and arresting the people who owned these links. These ran into thousands and many of them were sleeper cells run by the CIA/Mossad. Trump’s screams against rioters being caught and executed was clearly to protect the sleeper agents who owned these Starlink terminals. Obviously, these agents are guilty of treason, and will be tried the way spies are in any country.

The almost total absence of ground sleeper agents will prevent another riot from erupting.  Hopefully, that could deter the US from waging a war which will require boots on the ground.  That would be electorally disastrous in the US (timeline 27:19 to 29:00 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R2F883xfhTE).  Moreover, China has fortified Iran’s defences and offensive capabilities (the only flights that landed after airspace was shut were 16 Chinese military cargo planes). Russia too has pledge support to Iran.

Obviously, the first casualty will be the aircraft carriers that ware sitting dark in the ocean. Israel could get wiped off the map.

The war could intensify with Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz. That in turn will block the movement of oil from almost all the oil fields where the US is an equity partner.

That could push up the cost of oil for the entire world. The least effected will be Russia and Iran which have their own energy supplies and even China which has pipelines from these oil and gas fields catering to much of its demand.

The conflagration could spread

The biggest losers could be Israel and America which could lose its battleships and its soldiers. That in turn could cause the war to escalate further bringing in Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Turkey (and possibly Egypt). These countries have already entered into an alliance and are referred to as the Islamic NATO (https://www.firstpost.com/explainers/islamic-nato-turkey-pakistan-saudi-arabia-defence-alliance-13968489.html). These three countries are already sworn to support each other if any one of them is attacked.  Pakistan has nuclear facilities, Saudi Arabia has money and Turkey is with military strategy capabilities (Turkey accounts for 60% of the global market for drones – https://bhaskarr.substack.com/p/the-turkey-that-india-does-not-see?utm_source=publication-search).

Thus, the US could find itself in a bigger mess than ever imagined. If Russia and China come in, the US and the world could be destroyed.

That is why a war seems unlikely.  But when dealing with an unpredictable Trump and a bloodthirsty Israel, anything is possible.

Not the first time

Attempts to destabilise Iran have been made earlier as well.

The US is still smarting from the humiliation and helplessness it faced when its citizens and soldiers were captured by Iran and kept in prison for over 400 days. They were released by Iran after extensive negotiations, the details of which have not yet been disclosed. All the hostages were return to the US unharmed.

The Americans were imprisoned because of an earlier coup that the US and the UK engineered to topple a popular elected prime minister Mohammad Mosaddegh in 1953.

Mossadegh was removed because he nationalised Iran’s oil and gas fields, as the UK did not want to pay royalties on the oil extracted (it had taken over these fields when it was a coloniser). To date Iran is one of the very few oil producing countries in the world to have no equity stake from the US. Saudi Arabia also shares this distinction. But after it announced its plans for an IPO, it roped in BlackRock as an investor. Thus, it has a tenuous US link.

The Shah steps in

Mossadegh was replaced by Shah Reza Pahlavi who remained a US puppet. Many Iranians were upset with him but kept silent. Then came the ‘capitulation’ clause that he signed. The US had forced him to sign into law, a provision that would forbid Iran from trying any American by Iranian courts, even if the crime was committed on Iranian soil. The capitulation enraged Iranians and they went on a rampage. The Shah fled to the US.

That was when Ayatollah Ruhollah Musavi Khomeini returned from France where he had been exiled by the Shah. He became the new head of state and formed the Islamic Republic of Iran. Meanwhile, the rampaging crowds surrounded the US embassy and took all Americans hostage. President Reagen sent in two Chinook helicopters with marines to free the prisoners. The helicopters were seized and the marines too were imprisoned. All of them remained in captivity for over 400 days. The US has not forgotten the humiliation.

The US imposed sanctions on Iran in 1979. Iran survived all of them. Using innovative ways to create jobs (e.g. the Meherbani Scheme – https://asiaconverge.com/2015/11/housing-lessons-from-iran/). Israel and USA tried decapitating the Iranian government once again in 2024 by killing top generals and nuclear scientists using drones activated from sleeper cells within Iran. Even that failed to overthrow the government.

Instead, in the twelve-day war that followed Iran demonstrated for the first time that its missiles could easily bypass Israeli interceptions. Its missile is pulverized several locations.

It destroyed Nevatim in 2023 and parts of Tel Aviv in 2024. It was claimed to be the most heavily guarded airport in the world.

So, what now?

Iran still has many challenges to work out with or without a US/Israeli attack. It suffers from high inflation (over 40%) and a weakening currency. Sanctions have prevented it from generating additional revenues from oil.

Enter China

But China has been a great help. It began purchasing much of Iran’s oil, provided its infrastructure. Iran, meanwhile, in order to cope with sanctions, learned how to develop its own fields.  Later, it helped Venezuela to revive its oil fields that were crippled by US sanctions.

China is building a railway line from Chabahar port into Afghanistan, thus, unlocking the rich mineral deposits in that country. It is building another terminal at Chabahar port (India is building the other terminal). It is probable that China and Russia will use the railway lines and the roadways (to be constructed) to reach three key areas:

• The oil rich states in the Middle East.
• The Arabian Ocean.
• The Indian Ocean.

It is probable that the rail-road-Chabahar could become “Plan B” for China and Russia should investments in Pakistan’s Gwadar turn sour.

China is also investing $400 billion in Iran by way of infrastructure, oil purchases, defence and even financing businesses. That should ease Iran’s economic woes significant.

It has also brokered a peace deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Both were sworn enemies earlier. Today, Iran and Saudi Arabia are friends, even allies.

Islamic NATO

Tacitly both Iran and China (even Russia) approve of the Islamic NATO concept. It has begun working on stabilising the Middle East. Saudi Arabian aircraft bombed rebel posts in Yemen, restoring the entire country to the legitimate government.

Intelligence sources believe that the rebels were being funded by the UAE in consultation with Israel and the US. They hoped to use rebels to first break up Yemen and then destroy the formidable Houthis whom American warships, planes and bombings could not vanquish. The Houthis have been attacking Israel with missile (they shut down the port of Eilat) because they have sworn to continue this till Gaza is freed and Palestine becomes an independent state.

UAE has been warned by Turkey and Saudi Arabia (https://youtu.be/wFAuZg1w_Gk?si=911H2RJPGwlSqBeD ) not to finance other rebels in Somalia, Sudan and even Libya. They believe that such meddling has been encouraged by Israel with the tacit blessings of the US.

What about India?

India had three major interests in Iran:

• Oil which it imports.
• Building the Chabahar port.
• Building a railway line (this has been shelved as China has already begun investing in this project).

India has also been trading with Iran for centuries. The trading volume escalated during the 70s and usually involved the Hinduja group who were quite close to the Shah. After the Islamic revolution, the Hindujas reduced their activities in Iran. India-Iran trade volumes declined, except for oil imports.

India’s plans for Chabahar were firmed up over a decade ago. But as soon as the work began, the US stepped in with its sanctions. The Modi government acquiesced. It resumed work a couple of years ago after a US nod.

Now, with the renewed escalation, the US has threatened India with additional tariffs if it has any activities with Iran.

Iran is a big miffed with  India because of its unwillingness to stand up to the US (https://www.youtube.com/live/WPydFCGfjzg?si=snqfyUvbnvG3lx2k). India still owes a large amount of money to Iran for the oil it purchased. The US has banned banks from transferring funds to or from Iran. The new finance mechanisms which BRICS is adopting could solve this problem (https://asiaconverge.com/2026/01/the-dollar-and-the-us-could-stumble-together/).

Significantly, despite the US sanctions, the government has decided to go ahead with its work at Chabahar. That is a good sign. India’s refusal to endorse a US-sponsored resolution condemning Iran’s response to the riots, is also helpful (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WPydFCGfjzg). India needs to further strengthen its ties with Iran for several reasons:

• Iran’s Chabahar will emerge as a key gateway to trade the central Asian countries including Afghanistan.
• Iran would be the key player in the Middle East, especially after the formation of the Islamic NATO.
• It could be the main trade route through Chabahar with Russia, China and the central and even west Asian countries.
• The Chinese investment of $400 billion will make it a very attractive place to continue doing business.
• Its ancient trade and cultural links with India would help immensely in developing business ties with all other Islamic countries.

Iran is likely to be one of the key players on the world stage. Hitherto, it has overcome repeated attempts by USA, UK and Isreal to derail its government. India must strengthen its ties with Iran quickly; else it could stand further alienated even among the BRICS nations.

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My latest podcast is on how the US is pushing countries down the oily slope. Is it planning to bankrupt India? You can find it at https://youtu.be/SfUSXU9BKt4

Another podcast is on India finally stnding up the the US which can be found at https://www.youtube.com/live/WPydFCGfjzg?si=Vii8a9FLU69uzP30

There is another interview given to Republic TV (Republic World) on the India-EU FTA which can be found at https://youtu.be/FxQcYnRZ4G4?si=OCYKSgdArQ7y94H-

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And do watch our weekly “News Behind the News” podcasts, streamed ‘live’ every Saturday morning, at 8:15 am IST. The latest can be found at https://www.youtube.com/live/dbwgE9o7BXE?si=_xeuHM1wf-5EoXBW

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