Germany stumbles; Is limping today
By RN Bhaskar
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Germany has stumbled badly. It is limping currently. The stumble was not because it was careless. It was because it was more focussed on pleasing the US rather than looking after the interest of Germany and its citizens. This is the kind of stumble responsible leaders avoid, by ensuring that the interest of citizens comes first – not the preservation of a cosy relationship that some leaders might want to have with a powerful USA.
And it is not just on the European stage. Look at Germany in India. During the ‘eighties and the ‘nineties, Germany was one of the biggest and most vibrant investors in India. One by one, its strengths vanished, and the businesses had other players. Look at what happened to telecom. Then look at automobiles. Except for vintage brands like Mercedes, Audi and BMW, it is nowhere to be seen in the rapidly emerging space of either EVs or blended fuels.
It still remains a major player in the power sector. But that could also be because India has banned Chinese equipment. It is not there in the internet or AI spaces. Germany – for India as well – has shrunk.
When it comes to the European war theatre, Germany knows quite well that the fault was that of the US. When the US mooted in 2908 at the Bucharest summit that it would allow NATO to expand eastwards, Angela Merket, the then chancellor of Germany and the French President Nicolas Sarkozy protested. Merkel threatened to take up this issue before the UN. Unfortunately, she was confronted by industry leaders who did not want to upset the US. But Merkel has the foresight and the spine. The current chancellor, Friedrich Merz, has shown none of these qualities. Nor did his predecessor.
A promise jettisoned
Merkel was well aware that Germany was present at the negotiating table when – in 1990 – East and West Germany were allowed by the USSR President Gorbachev to unite. The condition was that NATO would not be allowed. Thereafter, Ukraine too was granted independence by the USSR on the condition that it would remain a ‘neutral’ state and not align its interests with any Western country, specifically with the US. Ukraine broke its word, instigated by the US.
The US is now trying hard to deny that it did not agree to the famous Baker like “not an inch eastwards” (free subscription — https://bhaskarr.substack.com/p/the-case-of-three-ceasefires-us-and). But the lie stands exposed if one goes though the contents of a “top secret” communication sent to the US government in 2008 by none other than William Burns. He was then the US ambassador to the USSR. The communication was eight pages long, marked classified and top secret, and was titled “NYET means NYET”. It can be got from (https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/08MOSCOW265_a.html). This document would not have seen the light of day, and the protestations of innocence by the US would have been convincing. But the unexpected happened. The document was made public by Wikileaks. It is now part of the archives of the University as a public document. That communication explains why the US gambit of pushing NATO eastwards would surely lead to a war. Burns’ words were prophetic.
On 20 February 2008 — when the US tried to get Georgia into the NATO fold – at the 2008 Bucharest Summit, NATO allies declared that Georgia would become a member in the future, om 204 an attempt to do precisely this was initiated. The Maidan riots in that year, instigated and funded by the CIA, alerted Russia of this possibility and in a swift pre-emptive move, it annexed Crimea.
The war with NATO finally began in 2022, though technically speaking it was a special ground operation that Russia launched against the NAYO puppet Ukraine. The decision to allow Ukraine to become a member of NATO was vigorously supported by UK Germany and France. Germany banned import of gas from Russa. Germany even allowed the West to blow up the Nord Stream pipelines (https://bhaskarr.substack.com/p/the-case-of-three-ceasefires-us-and). These pipelines were designed to bring gas to Germany and the EU at discounted rates.
The result? Germany’s economy suffered. Higher prices of energy resulted in many small units closing down.
Blows land on blows
Yes, even today, Merz continues to push the Ukraine case rather than that of his own country. He continues to push the US case for the bombing, genocide and ethnic cleansing that both Israel and the US have been responsible for. Merkel would have vehemently opposed such a stand. She knew where Germany’s best interests lay. Maybe, Merz is beholden to the US for getting his coalition partners to continue supporting him. Is it then any surprise that Germany’s GDP growth has been the most dismal in decades. It has abandoned its own interests. It has instead opted to protect US interests.
When the US imposed tariffs on the EU, Germany initially protested (thank heavens!), but later quietly toed the line that the US wanted the EU to respect. It meekly accepted a tariff structure where the tariffs on the EU were greater than the tariffs it could impose on the US.
Not surprisingly, Germany’s unemployment rates have begun to raise alarmingly. The ghosts of 1939 are being invoked. Nazi Germany rose from the ashes of the war reparations and high unemployment. The ultra-right is becoming more appealing in Germany again.
It has so far refused to do what is the most logical and sensible thing to do – mend bridges with Russia. Much of Germany’s business came from the entire landmass of Russia – which remains the largest landmass any country has. It is over twice the land area of USA and China. The solitary trans-Siberian railway line carried goods back and forth grom the German port of Hamburg. Today, the lines are no longer in use. Russia does not need Germany, or even the EU. It has found markets elsewhere.
Morally decrepit
There are two other instances which point to German myopia bordering on genuflecting to the US.
Just while this article was being written, Germany joined France and the UK in pushing for a snapback of full sanctions against Iran, unless the latter returned to the negotiating table over its nuclear programme. How stupid. Iran was at the negotiating table. Even while negotiations were underway, the US and Israel waged clandestine attacks and assassinations against key people in Iran, some of them on the negotiation team. Germany kept silent then. It refused to condemn the US. So, against the backdrop of the tacit go-ahead to the assassinations of negotiators (remember how the Hamas negotiator was also assassinated in Tehran?), why should Iran even care to negotiate? Hasn’t that simple fact dawned on Merz?
But why blame Merz alone? Germany has always been a willing partner with the US even in the most horrific of crimes. It is worth recalling at as amny as 80 German companies (including names like Daimler-Benz (which merged with Chrysler of the US), MAN and Siemens) were involved in becoming key chemical weapons suppliers for the US inspired Saddam Iran war. Saddam used them against Iran (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2002/dec/18/iraq.germany), in spite of all UN strictures against the use of such weapons. It is possible that some of the German companies were not aware that their products were used in the making of chemical weapons. So this move against Iran at this stage — and the silence about Israel — only underscores the moral bankruptcy of both the US and Germany – especially during the past five decades.
Take another instance. German, along with the rest of the EU, has been pushing Hungary to take a unified stand against Russia. Hungary, which borders Russia, is unwilling to poke the bear in the eye. It remembers the fate of Ukraine. Hence Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has asserted that Hungary’s security needs are a national matter and will be determined by Hungary itself, not by the European Union (https://carnegieendowment.org/europe/strategic-europe/2024/11/orbans-rebellion-against-europe-gains-momentum?lang=en). Why can’t Germany too think that way? It should think about its own interests and not those of the US.
Back to the future
Sadly, Germany has not made significant investments in new industries. Hence it has slipped badly on EVs, chip manufacturing and even telecom and internet. In the face of losing market share, its kay vehicle manufacture is planning to use its production facilities to make tanks instead (https://eurometal.net/rheinmetall-may-use-volkswagen-plant-to-produce-tanks/). Once again, not drones, or stealth aircraft, but the most primitive of 20th century military weaponry – tanks. Germany is rapidly losing its vision, and even its leadership of the EU. Unless its citizenry demands for better vision and spine — and a protection of German interests from its leaders – expect Germany to slide further into the muck.
Terribly sad for a country this author used to admire and visit so often.
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