MARKET PERSPECTIVE

By J Mulraj

Jan 10-16, 2026

Is Greenland next? That would be foolish and dangerous

Image created using Raphael.ai

After succeeding in the extraction and abduction to New York, of Venezuelan President, Nicolas Maduro, Donald Trump, like Oliver Twist, is begging for more. (Though, unlike Oliver, he is not punished for his avarice). Next on the list are, potentially, Greenland, Columbia, Panama and Cuba.

It appears that the Venezuelan operation, besides being violative of international law, was not thought fully through. The justification for the abduction, that Maduro headed a drug cartel, ‘Cartel de la Solos’, was proven incorrect after the US Department of Justice dropped the charges!

Trump’s primary objective was to lay hands on Venezuelan oil reserves which, at 302 b. barrels, are the world’s largest, then give American companies the mandate to extract and control the sale of the oil, denying its use to China. In Trump’s mind American control over oil would be a bargaining chip to China’s control over rare earths.

The gambit wasn’t correctly analysed. Venezuelan crude is heavy, thus difficult to refine, and harder/more expensive to extract. Darren Woods, the Chairman & CEO of Exxon Mobil, the world’s largest publicly owned company (Saudi Aramco is not publicly owned), stated that the legal and security risks of Venezuela made it uninvestible. And, getting Venezuela to change its laws, and to secure future investments, may require American boots on the ground, not a likely prospect.

Trump has reportedly offered $ 100,000 to each of Greenland’s 57000 citizens to allow a US takeover and become US citizens, which will protect them against his perceived Russian and Chinese imminent invasion. (In essence buying Greenland for $570 b. Measuring by land area (USA is 4.22 times Greenland) as Trump, the real estate tycoon would do, that values USA at a paltry $ 2.4 trillion!

The imminent threat of Russian/Chinese occupation isa bogey. Trump is greedy for Greenland’s deposits of rare earth minerals. For Trump its GREEDland!

But, yet again, he hasn’t thought it through fully. Why would Russia need to find a foothold in Greenland, when the Bering Strait between it and America is 55 miles away? And between Big Diomede in Russia, and Little Diomede in USA, in the middle of that strait, the distance is just 2.4 miles! Moreover, Russias land mass is 1.7 times the land mass of USA. It’s population is less than half America’s population. Why should it seek to capture Greenland, a far away land it can’t defend?

Neither would China. It’s navy has more ships than America, but smaller and less powerful, built for defence, not offence. China’s focus is on taking over Taiwan. With its dominance over rare earth minerals, it has no reason to acquire more.

So the reason Trump covets Greenland is not so as to prevent its takeover by a hostile Russia or China, but rather in order to grab its resources, particularly its reserves of rare earth minerals. But here, too, he seems to have miscalculated. The reserves are buried deep under the Arctic ice. Extracting them would be not only dangerous. As mentioned in my previous column titled ‘I can, therefore I will’, a video explains how the Arctic ice sheet is melting at a fast rate, and and extraction effort would do irreparable harm. If it disappears, a 24 foot wave can result in the total destruction of New York. Does Trump factor in this risk?

Or, does he believe he can sanction Poseidon, the Greek God of the Oceans, into submission?

The US is also about to enter into a war with Iran over Trump’s newly developed concerns for protesting citizens. Similar concern wasn’t notice, eg, over the citizens of Gaza or of Sudan.

Can US afford more conflicts, with a $38 trillion debt burden? Of this, $9 t. is due for redemption this year. Hitherto, US managed to borrow afresh, just to repay its debt, but now, Trump’s unique take on ‘how to win friends’, (Dale Carnegie wasn’t consulted), makes it a tough ask. Recent treasury auctions evoked no interest. Investor distaste is further enhanced by Trump’s attack on the independence of the Federal Reserve by bringing criminal charges on chairman Jerome Powell.

Of course, the money can be printed and offloaded on market makers and institutional buyers; but then it stays in USA and results in inflation, as Powell has been maintaining.

Meanwhile, India has made some achievements, using indigenously developed technologies.

In transportation India will launch its first, eco-friendly, hydrogen train in May 2026. It will have 120 hp, the world’s fastest, and will travel at a speed of 180 kms, contributing to India’s emission target.

In defence India has developed a high speed kamikaze drone, aka loitering munition ); has achieved a breakthrough in hypersonic cruise missile (not a hypersonic glide vehicle) with a 12 minute scramjet sustained performance; and tested a 3rd gen anti tank missile.

In energy India is working on developing its huge reserves of thorium, the world’s largest, to generate electricity. Thorium is safer, and far more cost effective, than nuclear in power generation. India has sufficient reserves to produce enough power for its needs, obviating the need for imported crude or for coal. This would become a game changer.

Last week the BSE Sensex closed the week flat, at 83570.

India ranks #4 out of 197 countries ranked by nominal GDP. This is because of its population, the largest in the world. But in terms of GDP per capita, it ranks a dismal 144th, just above Cambodia and just below Angola. We need to raise per capita income. The main hurdles are the low agricultural productivity, the abysmally slow judicial system, the Teflon coated corruption, especially of the political system and the feebleness of contractual obligations. When these issues are cleverly tackled, India will be able to claim the mantle of a developed economy.

As for Oliver Trump, his attempt to grab Greenland will end in a twist!

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Comments may be sent to: jmulraj@asiaconverge.com