4 May 2026
Trump’s missteps and hubris
By RN Bhaskar & Sakeena Bari Sayyed
Image — CoPilot
There was a time when the world could have been saved. There were many possibilities. For instance, if Bush, the son, had been indicted for war crimes after causing the death of 650,000 people in the Iraq war, maybe Trump would not have tried throwing international laws to the winds.
Sailors off the Venezuelan shores would not have been assassinated, So many assassinations of Iranian leaders would not have taken place. And the US would not have allowed sale of weapons to Israel to commit genocide and ethnic cleansing. Thanks to the US and Trump, the use of nuclear weapons is actually being contemplated. Thanks to the resolute objections from the US military, those plans have been shelved for now. Trump thought his boomerang would knock down his opponents. Now the boomerang is chasing Trump. He will soon be running for his life.
The nuclear option
The nuclear threat to the world became frighteningly clear if one heeds to the remarks of Larry Johnson, former CIA analyst, that General Dan Caine (Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff) stood his ground and “said no” to a proposal by Trump to use nuclear codes against Iran during the emergency meeting at the White House on 18 April 2026 (https://twitter.com/i/status/2046224644479524939). Johnson said: “There was a report that an emergency meeting was held Saturday night… Trump wanted to use the nuclear codes.” The video went viral. The White House denied this claim, but there was no comment from Caine.
Almost comically, there was the continued assertion by a deranged Netanyahu that if Israel had not moved against Iran, his country would have witnessed another Auschwitz, Majdanek or Treblinka – the biggest concentration camps that Hitler’s army created during the Second World war (https://youtube.com/shorts/2S6SccRPTpk?si=6_isJXlruWx3c3Fi).
On the third side of this triangle you have Iran, consistently stating that it had no intention of building a nuclear weapon as its religion forbade such development (except under the most extreme of situations). This was confirmed by Tulsi Gabbard, the US Director of Intelligence. It was reiterated by the IAEA in its last report on Iran. But Netanyahu and Mossad are believed to have Trump’s ear. They sold him their own version. It was a mistake that USA has begun to regret.
Johnson’s claim, and the truculence with which Trump has continued to change his story again and again, sometimes on the same day, has left the world bewildered and even furious. Some European nations have (unexpectedly) broken ranks with Trump, and even Israel. High on the list are Spain and Italy, but the UK has also begun making its disapproval clear. Ditto with Canada, Russia and China.
The world is suddenly in two distinct camps. One is USA and Israel, both accused of war crimes and genocide. The latter has been convicted by both the ICC and ICJ. The former has not been charged formally. But it has both abetted and participated in the war ctimes. It has supplied Israel with weaponry, even though it has been held guilty of genocide and ethnic cleansing. The other camp includes Iran, China, Russia and many other countries — including BRICS members, and some European nations like Spain, Italy and Ireland.
The real reasons
Wars usually have two sets of reasons. One comprises stated reasons. The second are the real reasons.
For Israel, the stated reason is that Iran poses a threat. The real reason is that it wants to remain the hegemon in the Middle East. That explains why Israel had earlier incited the US to wage wars against Iraq, Libya, Syria and lately Turkey. It also wants a larger Israel, inspired by messianic visions of a greater Israel which spans all lands between the rivers of Euphrates/Tigris to the sea.
For the US, the stated reason appears to be the nuclear and missile threats from Iran. It claims to be concerned about the safety of the world (Seriously!). The real reasons are an irrepressible urge to control Iran’s oil, in much the same way that it had done with Venezuela. It plans moves against other oil producing countries as well. In the Middle East, it controls oil and gas production facilities through ownership of equity stakes in such ventures. The US also has bases there. After it chose to attack Iran on February 28, 2026, many Gulf states have decided against the US having its bases there.
Unfortunately, as Iran showed to the US (and the UK) in 1979 (https://asiaconverge.com/2026/01/iran-was-once-an-ugly-duckling/), it can be formidable when pushed against the wall. It has been planning for this war for 20 years. It had anticipated that both Israel and the US would attack it some day or the other, and now has its strategies and weapons in place. Fortunately, it also enjoys the support of Russia and China. Thus, overwhelming Iran won’t be easy. The costs for the US will be massive.
Incomes tumble, costs spiral
Trump thought that his tariff plans would help the US rebound with more profits. He thought that he could do what US President William McKinley did at the turn of the 20th century (free subscription — https://bhaskarr.substack.com/p/trumps-quagmire-now-what-do-we-do).
But he did not reckon with the consequence of his imperious decision to put curbs on immigration and his sabre-rattling against neighbouring countries (Canada, Greenland, Venezuela, Columbia and Cuba, among others).
It is possible that the Epstein files have also hobbled him – both within the US and through possible blackmail from Netanyahu. His abject surrender to every Israeli demand lends credibility to the ‘blackmail’ theory. The Epstein papers also underscore the hollow morality of the US ruling class.
Not surprisingly, US debt, which was already at an impossibly high level of $37 trillion, began ballooning. It continues to swell even today, as war expenses mount (keeping battleships and troops on full alert costs money, as do the missiles and interceptors used).
Losing money
Those missteps neutralised all the gains from the mobilisation of additional funds through tariffs. Wars hurt him grievously. Without immigrants, US factories could not get cheap labour. Its export competitiveness flagged. Counter-tariffs were imposed by countries like China and Canada. Its sanctions began biting, not the target countries, but the US itself. China banned the export of rare earths – which turned out to be a blessing for the world, because now the US cannot replenish its stockpiles of missiles, interceptors and other military hardware. War began eating away at its entrails. And the debt burden began galloping. The US dollar has become wobbly.
Isolated USA
In a bid to cut expenses, USA began existing several multilateral bodies (download the entire list from https://asiaconverge.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/2026-05-04_Trump-has-exited-several-multilateral-forums.pdf). It failed to realise that the very factors that made the US a friend of the entire world was its support to these multi-lateral forums. It was now stupidly kicking away the very ladder which had helped it grow. China readily accepted that ladder. It began talking the language of development and mutual growth – unlike the US which was always transactional with insensitive conditions.
Countries that had suffered from the US’ attempts to weaponise money (thanks to the dollar being the fiat currency, and the US control over SWIFT). Many nations began accepting the alternatives offered by both Russia and China (https://greenfdc.org/china-belt-and-road-initiative-bri-investment-report-2023/). Now almost every member of BRICS has adopted alternative currency payment methods, including India which recently entered into a local currency deal with with UAE.
Attempts to use naval blockade – in much the same way as it did against Japan before World War II began, and the more recent blockade of Cuba — also began backfiring. It paved the way for other countries blockading the US and its allies’ sea borne vessels at the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Yemen thus blocked vessels that were relevant for the US and Israel which wanted access to and through the Red Sea. Iran too began using the Strait of Hormuz as its defence against the predatory tactics of USA and Israel.
Crisis stations
Iran hit back with precision at carefully identified targets. Unlike the US and Israel, that bombed civilian populations, including school girls, Iran hit at the very objects that Israel and US hit (but Iran did not attack hospitals, schools and places of worship – https://www.youtube.com/live/caxxml050Yk?si=WtryHD_aGhTonlzO). If the US hit banks, Iran hit banks. If Iran’s military sites were hit, Iran hit US bases.
Gradually the entire world saw the ruthlessness and disdain for life on the part of Israel and the US, and the humanitarian approach to defensive/offensive strategies adopted by Iran. Public opinion was rapidly swerving towards Iran. Trump and Netanyahu are both becoming increasingly unpopular in their respective regions.
Even AIPAC (https://asiaconverge.com/2025/02/america-weeps-trump-leaves-it-isolated/) – the key Israel lobby in the US which funds almost all Congressmen – has begun becoming increasingly squeamish, as protests in the US have begun demanding “US First; not Israel First”. Should public support against Israel plummet, all military and economic funding that Israel gets would also stop.
That would be as effective as sending Israel to the gas chamber.
Bigger crises coming
Trump’s attempts to try to control runaway oil prices have not succeeded. One thing that turns US voters against any politician is increase in gas prices at the pump. Oil prices have already climbed by over 15% and are likely to soar by 100% or more if war against Iran continues and, in retaliation, oil and gas wells in the entire Middle East and Israel are destroyed.
Attempts to hit the power stations in Iran will result in power stations and desalination plants in the Middle East getting bombed.
That will stop almost all oil and gas coming from this region. People will flee the Middle East.
When there is no power, desalination plants will get affected (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/12/how-much-of-the-gulfs-water-comes-from-desalination-plants).
Even Israel has 80-85% of its water coming from desalination plants. It has plans to increase this share to 90% soon. Thus, Israel too will become uninhabitable.
Despite its bluster and its threats, the US dare not provoke Iran into bombing desalination plants. The US and Israel are trapped in a web of its own making.
But that is not all. Even travel and cargo routes may take a different turn, making almost all of USA’s prime military sites irrelevant and even expensive to maintain.
New alternative routes are being planned (https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Middle-Corridor-Emerges-as-a-Strategic-Lifeline-for-Global-Trade.html). The Middle Corridor, or the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route is the one that should soon become operational. The US will lose even more. The new routes – by land and by sea – will soon benefit both Russia and China, along with many other countries. US could end up losing even more money.
Shrinking revenue streams
Finally, any oil not coming from the Middle East, will mean reduced dividend income or profit sharing earnings that US companies have with oil and gas companies in almost all countries (except maybe Iran). That will diminish USA’s incomes. Currently, the US enjoys three income flows:
- Oil & Gas
- Sale of Military hardware and services
- IT services and products.
A Middle East war could end that source of income. Iran’s new war strategies along with Russian and Chinese technologies have shown the world how ineffective (expensive) US weaponry is. So, this income stream will also get hit.
Trump’s push for IT and AI companies may be threatened by China’s growing presence in this field. China’s Huawei is already promoting platforms other than those of Microsoft. Europe too has asked its enterprises to move away from Microsoft firmware.
So, in addition to the debt burden, hence high interest payments, USA may not be able to generate the income it hoped to garner. It will be a big trouble if USA does not stop the war immediately, and make peace with Iran – even if it means jettisoning Israel. That won’t be easy because all Congressmen are being financed by AIPAC.
Coup de grace
But the coming financial meltdown may cripple AIPAC’s strengths as well.
Do pay heed to how the world’s largest fund manager – Blackrock – is facing a cash squeeze. It has allowed its customers to withdraw only a small part of their investments with Blackrock.
That means its finances are strained. A significant percentage of its investments are locked up in Ukraine. The danger is that this may be reduced to nothing. Another large chunk is invested in Israel which appeared impregnable till recently. Israel paid for the military hardware by floating bonds which were purchased by hedge companies. Many of these hedge funds are believed to be owned by Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law. These hedge funds are said to have sold these bonds to Blackrock. But now Israel is losing, that could mean huge losses for Blackrock.
Also watch how Citadel is under pressure (https://theogonyfinancial.com/citadel-faces-mounting-pressure-amid-high-leverage-and-shrinking-liquidity/). JP Morgan’s chief Jamie Dimon recently remarked, these are signs that other cockroaches could soon emerge (https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/oct/14/jp-morgan-jamie-dimon-losses-private-credit-sector).
As the key player in the high stakes financial game, the US could be just about to go down like the Titanic when it hits the financial iceberg.
Trump has learnt one cruel lesson – never trouble bees in a hive unless you have first identified the ways to protect yourself.
Trump in his arrogance and hubris did not pay heed. The bees are just about to buzz savagely. He may have no chance to escape. Everything is boomeranging back on him.
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My latest podcast is the last of a three-part series – tunder the umbrella heading “Options before the government – III”. India has very few options to cope with the financial tsunami that confronts India. Here are some solutions. You can find it at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vc-5YRWzS8A&pp=0gcJCd4KAYcqIYzv
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Our weekly “Breaking News” podcasts will resume from 9 May 2026, at 8:15 am, as usual.
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