MARKET PERSPECTIVE

By J Mulraj

OCT 6-11, 2024

Can we control AI?

Technology is a triple edged sword, having not only a good side and a bad side to it, but also the likelihood of an ugly side. We want the good side, tolerate the bad side but shudder at the ugly side. God forbid we ever get to see it!

Emerging technology has the power to do a lot of good, by solving problems and meeting felt needs. For example, using technology to meet the expected shortage of energy needs, as demand for it grows from developing economies, (with huge populations climbing the income and wealth ladder), together with reduced supply of fossil fuels due to its negative impact on the environment. One of the solutions provided by technology is that of the EV (electric vehicle). EVs come with their own set of issues, such as shortage of rare earth minerals needed to make them, but the industry has evolved, and is tackling the issues. EVs don’t consume fossil fuels in usage, and so don’t harm the environment.

With the promise of autonomous vehicles the EV technology can yield an extra benefit. In today’s vehicles the weight of the passengers is around 5% the weight of the vehicle, as steel is heavy, and used for safety in a collision. This is a waste of the energy contained in the fossil fuel, as only 5% of the energy moves the people (the objective of transportation) and 95% moves, basically steel. A material lighter than steel, like aluminum, plastic, or composites, would be desirable, but cannot provide the safety in a collision.

Autonomous vehicles are demonstratively much safer, thanks to technology. They are expected to reduce or eliminate collisions. This would make it conceivable to produce cars with much lighter materials thus significantly improving efficiency of fossil fuel usage (until a full transition) and much reduced consumption.

At a recent event in LA, where Elon Musj showed off his Cybercab, a $30000, 20 seated autonomous vehicle, Musk forecast that autonomous cars would be available in Texas and in California next year. However, earlier forecasts for autonomous vehicles have been off target.

Further advances of technology in the field of energy are being made, including nuclear fusion, which provides limitless energy, virtually free of cost, expected to become commercially possible in a decade.

In the field of healthcare, watch this video of Mark Benioff, founder CEO of SalesForce, talk about the technological breakthrough Noble prize winning Japanese researcher Shinya Yamanaka, relating to stem cells. It has the potential to treat many hereditary ailments, such as congenital blindness.

Technology can, and does, be misused. Using technology, hand phones have become digital wallets, making it easy to undertake transactions using a handheld, with digital money. But bad actors misuse it to perpetrate ever more innovative cyber fraud, and several persons have fallen prey to it.

AI, the technology of the future, requires humongous amounts of data to be crunched, and stored. Data storage gobbles up huge amounts of energy. So high is energy requirement that Microsoft recently purchased the closed nuclear plant of the infamous Three Mile Island disaster, after which it was shut down. So AI, the most promising future technology, has the bad side of guzzling energy which has an environmental impact.

But these can find solutions.

It is the ugly side of technology that is the nightmare!

Watch this video. In it, AI expert Eliezer Yudkowsky and Tesla founder Elon Musk, talk about the huge dangers of unrestrained technology use without guardrails. Large sums of money are being allocated to develop ‘slaughterbots’. Slaughterbots are autonomous robots which think and  act independently. They can decide who lives and who dies! Slaughterbots aren’t scifi either. Companies like Boston Dynamics (BD) and Open AI are working to develop them. BD has created a robot called Atlas. Sam Altman’s Open AI has created Q Star. Q Star is a huge leap in developing AGI, or Artificial General Intelligence. That’s a robot that can think and learn for itself.

The slaughterbots, with independent decision making, the ability to think and learn for itself, may, in future, develop goals at variance with human goals and values. This is the concern of Elon Musk, himself a technology buff.

In fact, when Sam Altman created Open AI, (which created Chat GPT)  he, and his carefully selected team launched Open AI as a non profit organisation, to concentrate on making products useful to society. Founder Sam Altman, to buttress his point, did not take an equity stake in Open AI.  But they later realized that developmental costs were high and when they tried to raise money, they could get funds only if they converted to a ‘for profit’. It has now been converted to a for profit organisation and raised money at a valuation of $150 b. Sam has been given a 7% stake ($10.5 b. value).

But as a for profit organisation, they are investing in products like slaughterbots. Yudkowsky and Musk are expressing concerns, quite rightly, about the dangers of releasing such  technology, that can become ugly, with no oversight.

In fact Bill Joy, a Co-founder of Sun Microsystems, had forecast this 24 years ago, in an article in the April 2000 issue of the Wired.

Disruptions of industries due to new technologies is creating a lot of geopolitical flux. The changing profile of energy with renewables as a bridge towards some source like nuclear fusion, is affecting the oil industry. That would, and is having, geopolitical repercussions. The Middle East is in turmoil, and if big powers enter the fray, can lead to a world war. God forbid!

The current set of world leaders is proving to be unable to the task of preventing conflict. If leadership were to change in the Nov 5 US elections, would Trump be able to stanch the jingoistic madness that now pervades? Let us pray.

Last week the BSE Sensex ended at 81381, for a weekly drop of 307.

The week saw the demise of Mr Ratan Tata, the most respected head of the Tata conglomerate. He instilled values that are rare, complementing a business acumen and a tremendous vision.

One hopes his values and vision spill over into companies like BD and Open AI and the besastliness of technology is converted into a thing of beauty.

Picture Source: https://spirossoutsos.com/product/the-good-the-bad-the-ugly-clint-eastwood-lee-van-cleef-eli-wallach-canvas-printmovie-poster/

Comments may be sent to jmulraj@asiaconverge.com