Modi warms up to China

By RN Bhaskar
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In some ways, one could say that Prime minister Modi has the proverbial nine lives of a cat. His visit to Tianjin in China this September could provide him a major opportunity for re-occupying centre-stage in the world of geopolitics.

As media reports stated (https://www.business-standard.com/external-affairs-defence-security/news/amid-us-strain-pm-narendra-modi-set-to-china-visit-after-7-years-125080601921_1.html) , “Amid US strain, PM Narendra Modi set to visit China after 7 years”.

A homecoming?

The occasion is the SCO Summit.  Modi is expected to meet both Xi Jinping and Vladmir Putin at this meeting.  Obviously, the three will rub shoulders again — amid rising geopolitical tensions.  It may be recalled that Modi skipped the last opportunity he had by opting not to attend the Russia’s Victory celebrations on May 9 2025 (https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/pm-modi-to-skip-russias-invitation-not-to-visit-moscow-for-may-9-celebrations/articleshow/120760247.cms). Xi was the chief guest then.  Modi could have met Putin and Xi there as well.

It is quite possible that Modi did not want to upset the US then.  India refused to join the BRICS proposal that its members could now begin trading with each other in their respective currencies and thus reduce their dependence on the US dollar.  India was not willing to upset the US even then.

When Trump announced his Liberation Day list of tariffs, India remained silent.  It said it preferred to negotiate rather than impose counter tariffs. It kept silent in the face of other provocations as well.

But after Trump’s latest fulminations, where he called India a “dead” economy, and even suggested that India would one day start purchasing oil from Pakistan, the government finally issued a statement stating that India would pursue its own national interests and not cow down before the US demands of opening its doors to US agro-produce or stopping import of Russian oil.

It did not balk even when Trump raised tariffs to 50% — the same level of tariffs imposed on Brazil. Not surprisingly, shortly thereafter, prime minister Modi and Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva spoke with each other and “agreed to strengthen collaboration across key sectors such as trade, technology, energy, defence, agriculture, health, and cultural exchanges” (https://www.business-standard.com/external-affairs-defence-security/news/pm-modi-lula-india-brazil-trade-defence-energy-us-tariffs-donald-trump-125080701928_1.html). Some of the US tariffs on textiles may find a loophole in the UK FTA which allows India to export such items duty free to that country.  That could make savvy traders then reexport textiles to the US at a concessional duty of just 10%.

Finally, there was an announcement that Modi would visit Tianjin in September to attend the SCO summit (https://www.reuters.com/world/china/india-pm-modi-visit-china-aug-31-sco-summit-indian-tv-channels-report-2025-08-06/).

Don’t expect the US to watch these developments in silence.  It will hit back in ways that are not anticipated.  Remember the popular uprising in Maidan where the former Ukranian president was eventually outsted and Zelensky was voted into power?  The Maidan Revolution in Ukraine unfolded between 2013 and 2014. It was subsequently relealed by none other than Prof Jeffrey Sachs that the entire uprising was financed by the CIA. Ditto with the uprisings in Syria and Iraq. Expect attempts to create similar uprisings in India as well.

Of course, the Modi government has lent itself to public resentment. It is accused of

The government should be additionally careful abd roll back such moves.  Most of the disgruntled states are border states, making them more susceptible to US moves to destabilise the government. Even a week can be a long time in politics.

Russia-India-China

It is possible that Putin will play the role of a marriage maker. He may try to smoothen out any rough edges that may still rankle the Modi-Xi relationship. Russia has good reasons for doing this.  It has been a key promoter of the Russia India China concept.  This is something that this author too has been trying to promote within India since 2009 (https://www.bing.com/videos/riverview/relatedvideo?q=youtube%2c+rn+bhaskar%2c+russia+india+china&mid=2395F8511D6363BE943C2395F8511D6363BE943C&FORM=VIRE) . It is possible that the time is right for this idea to gain traction.

If the three begin to work together, there synergies for all the three to harness.  China has the production benefit.  India has a large market.  And Rusia has huge reserves of natural resources – including gold, oil and rare earths.  But Russia has a poor demography – it has one of the lowest population densities among countries in the world. India can help it out there.  India is already working with Russia on joint oil production contracts through OVL, the wholly owned subsidiary of ONGC.  Coincidentally, India began discussing with Russia ways in which it could partner that country in mining rare earths (https://indianexpress.com/article/business/india-russia-discuss-rare-earth-mineral-extraction-us-tariffs-oil-trade-10175015/).

BRICS beckons again

For long Modi has watched how he and India have got marginalised in the BRICS.

There were several contributing factors.

The first was the increasing clout of China.  Unlike the US which offered to give something with one hand, and took back a lot more with the other, China has worked more towards development – both economic and social – with the Global South. Where the US has been transactional, China has tried to be supportive.

The belt and road initiative (BRI) was meant to benefit not only China’s local cement and steel industry, but was also meant to usher in greater prosperity for recipient nations.  If the US used its influence to force its version of democracy and compliant leaders, China was unconcerned with local internal politics. Instead, it focussed only on the big picture. While India tied itself in knots over Islam, China was willing to embrace and work with Islamic nations with an even hand (https://www.bing.com/videos/riverview/relatedvideo?q=youtube,+rn+bhaskar,+China,+India+and+Islam&mid=1DDEEB5D2BC98D1387D11DDEEB5D2BC98D1387D1&FORM=VIRE ).

The second factor which could have made India uncomfortable was the rising clout of Iran.  This was more so ever since it trounced Israel a second time, and even dared to look the US in the eye. The fact that China too agreed to purchase oil from Iran made it closer to China than to India. Even projects like the Chabahar port which could have drawn India and Iran closer got delayed (https://asiaconverge.com/2025/07/the-elephant-is-missing/).

The third was how Pakistan had suddenly gained geo-political significance since it controlled the borders with both Afghanistan and Iran.  Both are crucial to Russia and China in developing the territories of Central Asia.  Russia also agreed to connect to Pakistan’s Gwadar port (https://www.nation.com.pk/04-Feb-2025/gwadar-port-and-cpec-a-catalyst-for-regional-coop-in-asia-and-obstructionist-politics-of-other-states). It is only a matter of time that even Pakistan will become part of BRICS.

Finally, India lost out badly in the skirmish following the Pahalgam terrorist attack.  Few countries cared to name and blame Pakistan even while condemning the act of terrorism.  Almost everyone wanted an international court of enquiry into the incident, something the Indian government was reluctant to permit. Stories about India losing five defence aircraft began gaining circulation (https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/trump-says-he-thinks-5-jets-were-shot-down-india-pakistan-hostilities-2025-07-19/). India denied such reports, but failed to give any convincing number or details (https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-dismisses-report-pakistan-downing-jets-disinformation-2025-05-07/).

India’s reluctance to stand up to the tariffs and related threats by the US only weakened its image.

All this changed when Trump decided to mock both Modi and India. That could have set the stage for a relook at the entire geopolitical landscape.

BRICS vs G-7

When Modi attended the G-7 meeting in June 2025, Trump invited him to the White House.  Modi declined (https://www.outlookindia.com/national/pm-modi-says-he-declined-trumps-invitation-to-white-house-during-g7-summit) .  He had already been belittled during his earlier meeting with Trump at the White House in February 2025 (https://www.eastpost.in/indian-foreign-policy/2025/02/outcome-of-modis-meeting-with-trump-indias-interests-slaughtered-at-the-altar-of-optics/). He had also watched Zelensky and the South African President, Cyril Ramaphosa,  being publicly humiliated by Trump in recent months (https://capetimes.co.za/news/2025-06-19-why-trump-snubbed-ramaphosa-at-g7-summit-amid-iran-israel-conflict/) .  It is quite possible that Modi did not want to be snubbed in a similar fashion.

The turning point came when Trump and his team began pushing India to allow agro imports.  That was a red line for Modi.  He had seen the whiplash his government faced in July 2019 (https://asiaconverge.com/2019/08/indian-bureaucrats-almost-shortsold-the-milk-industry-at-fta-cpec-negotiations/) when Minister Piyush Goyal almost sold away India’s dairy farm interests to New Zealand.  The reaction was so swift and widespread, that the Modi government rescinded the draft agreement and the proposed plans.  Modi was not willing to do anything that would generate another uprising. Added to this was Trump’s demand that India should stop purchasing oil from Russia.  Trump claimed that India’s actions were financing Russia’s war machinery.

India officially bemoaned the hypocritical stance of the US.  The statement stated, “The European Union in 2024 had a bilateral trade of Euro 67.5 billion in goods with Russia. In addition, it had trade in services estimated at Euro 17.2 billion in 2023. This is significantly more than India’s total trade with Russia that year or subsequently. European imports of LNG in 2024, in fact, reached a record 16.5mn tonnes, surpassing the last record of 15.21mn tonnes in 2022.”

Trump was disinclined to listen to India.  When he decided to snub both India and its government, it could have been the proverbial last straw that broke the camel’s back. Now, Modi too became willing to get closer to China and Russia.

Formidable BRICS

By going to China, one could assume that Russia will play the role of marriage maker.  It is close to both China and India. It could also give Modi a chance to request both leaders to help him make the BRICS summit immensely successful. It is to be held in India next year

With fears of annoying the US being cast away, expect a resurgent Modi to breathe fire and brimstone at the BRICS summit next year.  He could galvanise the entire Global South, aided by both Russia and China.

Expect them to make peace with Modi in the interests of a realigned global order. It will be Modi’s place in the sun again.  By making peace with Pakistan, he could reemerge as a global statesman.  To ease the entire process, China too us expected to go the extra mile.  It is not surprising that “Member of Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi is set to travel to India to hold talks with National Security Adviser Ajit Doval on the larger border issue between the two countries on 18 August“(https://theprint.in/diplomacy/wang-yi-to-visit-india-this-month-modi-to-travel-to-china-putin-comes-in-later-this-year/2715502/)”  Putin too is to visit India later this year.

The decline in the fortunes of both the US and the EU will translate into more positive cashflows to the countries in the Global South.

This could also be India’s (and Modi’s) chance to assume centre-stage instead of being sidelined globally (free subscription — https://bhaskarr.substack.com/p/the-elephant-is-missing).

Meanwhile, the US will continue to struggle to pull itself out of the quagmire it has got into (free subscription — https://bhaskarr.substack.com/p/trumps-quagmire-now-what-do-we-do). The wars in Israel and Ukraine will continue to drain it of money and goodwill.  It runs the risk of becoming a global pariah itself.

Modi could end up snatching his moment of glory even in the face of near irrelevance.  It remains to be seen if India can have the right economic policies as well.  If it does not, its glory will be transient and ephemeral (https://bhaskarr.substack.com/p/india-is-losing-friends-influence).

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