MARKET PERSPECTIVE

By J Mulraj

Mar 21- 27, 2026

None of them are workable

Image created by Raphael AI

It is enigmatic how fact and fiction are intertwined. At the 2026 Oscars, the pinnacle of screen fiction, the winners like ‘One Battle After Another’ (Best Movie), Sinners (Best Male Actor) and Weapons ( Best Supporting Actress), Avatar: Fire and Ash (Best Visual Effects) won Oscars.

Sadly, the fact is that the world is witnessing One Battle After Another in which the Weapons used by Sinners waging them are becoming more technologically advanced and dangerous.

The current one, in which the US- Israel combine attacked Iran to deter the latter from acquiring nuclear weapon making capability, which they say was just 3 weeks away, is now at a dangerous crossroad.

Iran, using it’s stock of missiles and drones, fought an asymmetrical war against the attackers who attained air and Naval dominance, not just superiority. With this dominance they destroyed Iran’sradars, capable of detecting incoming threats, they destroyed also Iran’s airforce and navy, they reportedly depleted by 90% Iran’s missile and drone stockpiles, and the factories producing them. Iran countered by shutting the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway through which 20 million bpd (roughly a fifth of global demand) passes.

That became the military equivalent of squeezing the delicate parts of a male anatomy which leads to instant and unbearable pain. The price of Brent Crude shot up from $70, before the war started, to $ 112/barrel. Commercial ships are unable to get insurance cover for their vessels and cargo and their crews, so have stopped lifting the oil. This will also impact downstream industries (petrol prices have shot up/ gas is unavailable as Qatar declared force majeure and a fertiliser shortage will lead to food shortages and perhaps to famine.

A prolonged closure of the Strait, if it drives crude oil prices to around $ 140/ b may well tip the world to a global recession, one that will kick off a bear market. So Trump has to find ways to end the impasse. He has four choices as depicted in the image above.

To negotiate: Trump sent a 15 point proposal to Iran, giving it five days, ending on Friday 27th to negotiate or else he would escalate by hitting Iran’s energy infrastructure; the huge power plant that supplies Tehran, a city that houses some 13 million people, including in it’s suburbs. The US has also threatened to hit Iran’s desalination plant. USA will allow Iran use of nuclear technology for power generation, indeed, will assist it, and allow it to retain its centrifuges under international supervision. But Iran would need to forsake its quest for a nuclear weapon.

Iran, as expected, turned this down. Its demands include continuation of it’s nuclear ambitions, retaining control over Strait of Hormuz, withdrawal of all US forces, and reparations for war damage. Iran has threatened to reciprocate any attack on its energy infrastructure by attacking Gulf countries (as it can’t reach American targets yet).

There is also the question who would negotiate from Iran’s side. The Ayatollah has been killed. His son and replacement as leader is injured and not seen; likely in Russia. Other leaders may not have the authority. The Speaker of the House, also an IRGC General, and known to the Supreme Leader, is a likely counterparty.

This option looks undoable as the wish list of both sides is hugely different.

To keep attacking or To Escalate: The US has, as stated earlier, destroyed Iran’s war machine – its airforce, navy, over 90% of its missile and drone stockpile and factories to replenish them. It needs to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. It has summoned USS Tripoli, alongwith 2500 troops of the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, a rapid response force trained in land operations. It may be used to capture and hold on to Kharg Island. About 90% of Iranian oil exports are evacuated from Kharg Island, so it would come under severe economic pressure to negotiate.

Some 12 other nations have agreed to join the US effort to clear the Strait of Hormuz.

Another target may be Qeshm Island under which is another underground missile city. This poses a threat to air dominance in the Strait of Hormuz, which is essential for any operation aimed at taking control over it. Besides missiles and drones, ships entering the Strait are endangered by a plethora of fast speedboats, whose crew is armed with shoulder fired SAMs (Surface to Air Missiles) To deal with these boats, US plans to use Apache Helicopters and the A-10 Warthog with its deadly Gatling guns.

Interestingly, an anagram of Strait of Hormuz is Throat of our SAM!

The biggest risk to Trump are an unacceptable level of body bags and/or serious damage to an aircraft carrier, which would adversely impact his chances for the November mid-term elections.

To unilaterally withdraw: Another option for Trump is to unilaterally declare that he has achieved his aims, and will cease fire and withdraw. He will tout the military achievements of destroying Iran’s air and sea power and it’s underground nuclear stockpile and facilities to declare victory, and head to a make up artist to wipe the egg off his face. Iran would still hold the choking ability over the Strait of Hormuz, and would use it to extract a toll for ships seeking passage. Crude oil prices would remain elevated, the workd would go into a recession and stock markets would lose 30% + of peak value.

There are no good options.

Last week the BSE Sensex ended at 73583, for a weekly loss of 51 points.

The world will know, by April 6, what the Don has decided to do.He extended the 5 day deadline by 10 days. With negotiations unlikely, Trump would probably carry out his threat to attack Iran’s energy infrastructure. Iran will hit back at Gulf States. The price of crude oil and of natural gas will shoot up.

Faced with 4 bad choices, Trump may seek to decide which to take by plucking the leaves of a 4 leaf clover.

As a spiritual symbol a 4 leaf clover represents luck, faith, hop and love.

God knows the world needs all of these.

What the world does not need is One Battle After Another.

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Comments may be sent to: jmulraj@asiaconverge.com