1 June 2026
The unravelling disintegration of India
By RN Bhaskar and Sakeena Bari Sayyed
Image: Copilot
Will India break up? That is the question security analysts have begun asking. The question assumes relevance because of three reasons
- The silence over six Ukrainians and one US citizen who were distributing AK-47s to rebels in Mizoramm and teaching them how to use drones to fight India.
- The manner in which the rupee has been depreciating, almost in the same way currencies in countries like Iran, Venezuela, Cuba and Iraq also depreciated. All these countries were or have been marked for destruction and acquisition by USA.
- The way India has permitted foreign exchange to leave India, and the RBI to exhaust reserves through its dividends to the government especially at a time when the rupee ought to have been defended.
All the three issues – in addition to several other pointers — suggest that India is being primed for a fragmentation.
The trap
India has been trapped — big time. On the one side is the blackmail threat USA wields. One blackmail that is being touted is that of the Epstein files. Another way is the one expounded by Sergey Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, at a public meeting in India in 2023 is by blackmailing Indians on the ‘bribes’ policymakers received by getting their children scholarships with US Universities and details of bank accounts anywhere in the world (timeline 18:47 at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hiA8Ex9KQo4). Key Indian officials, vulnerable to these methods, are being used to coerce policy decisions that the US wants taken.
The markets are astonished with India agreeing to purchase items from the US worth $500 billion. This includes oil from Venezuela. Sadly, India has agreed to do this when all other Asian countries refuse to purchase oil from USA in view of increasing freight costs (High Freight Costs Force Asian Buyers to Cancel U.S. LPG Cargoes | OilPrice.com https://share.google/RAVFMsi5hQ6HjYWH5).
But then did India have a choice? If India had not pumped $500 billion money into America, the US could be expected to further depreciate the value of the Indian rupee. That would lead to hyperinflation and widespread insurrection. In turn, that would lead to largfe-scale social disaffection.
Effectively, India could become the 52nd state of the US, with Venezuela becoming the 51st state (https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-us-state-trump-rodriguez-chavismo-silence-634203c885803b018ecd8ac012bb249d).
There are reports that say that the US is trying to colonise India and other countries (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=302uQhql3kY). India’s policymakers try not to talk about this.
Listen to other warning voices. Take Dr. Bharat Karnad as an example – (https://bharatkarnad.com/2026/05/22/india-forks-out-68-billion-to-become-a-us-n-dependency/)
https://indianexpress.com/article/india/quad-indo-pacific-maritime-energy-critical-minerals-initiatives-10709262/
Then you have another absurd situation. Prime Minister Modi has exhorted Indians not to travel overseas as part of his recently announced austerity measures. Yet, India continues with its spending spree. It prefers not to see the dangers of hyperinflation yet.
https://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-finalises-request-letter-for-114-rafales-to-send-it-to-france-soon-10706123/
Quad dreams
Then there are strange contradictions when it comes to India’s excitement about the Quad platform becoming more active. India believes that Quad will give it a primary role (https://indianexpress.com/article/india/quad-indo-pacific-maritime-energy-critical-minerals-initiatives-10709262/ ). But at the recently Trump-Xi meeting it was agreed that the US would not be an adversary to China in this hemisphere. Both appear to contract each other.
Do bear in mind that contrary to India’s hopes, the US has plans that shrink India’s role in the world. Christopher Landau, deputy secretary of state, stated in India on March 5 this year, “India should understand that we are not going to make the same mistakes with India that we made with China 20 years ago in terms of saying, we are going to let you develop all these markets, and then, the next thing we know, you are beating us in a lot of commercial things. We are going to make sure that whatever we do is fair to our people. Because ultimately, we have to be accountable to our own people, just as the Government of India has to be accountable to its people. at the Raisina Hill conference this year, stated,” (https://www.state.gov/releases/office-of-the-spokesperson/2026/03/deputy-secretary-of-state-christopher-landau-at-the-raisina-dialogue).
In other words, the US will treat India only as a market to which it can sell its goods and take back money. India is the new colony for the US. India could be tempted into trying to thwart India. Thus, India will end up as another Zelensky in being pitted against China.
Time to splash some cold water on the face on a winter morning!
Then there is Russia
Against this backdrop, there is the intriguing RELOS document that India has signed with Russia (https://www.thedefensenews.com/IndiaRussia-Publish-RELOS-Pact-Permitting-3000-Troops-10-Aircraft-and-5-Warships-in-Reciprocal-Deployments/). This was an agreement that was signed in February 2025, and was ratified by Russia in December 2025. It came into force on 12 January 2026 (https://tass.com/defense/2118997).
This is the first time since independence that India has allowed a foreign power to station its troops on Indian soil. Why has the government done this? Is this to create a Praetorian guard to protect key Indians. Was it to prevent the kind of assassination by local security that ended former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi’s life? If so, it was in personal interest, not national interest.
Or was the RELOS agreement signed to facilitate the Russians to help India identify security loopholes like the one in Mizoram. (https://www.thedefensenews.com/NIA-Arrests-6-Ukrainians-and-1-US-Citizen-Over-Alleged-Weapons-and-Drone-Training-for-Insurgent-Groups-Targeting-India/).
But then, what do the Russians have to say about India two-timing them with this US deal? So far, there has been no comment. But actions speak louder. India does not get Russian oil at discounted prices anymore. That hurts India’s finances.
How Russia saved India
The arrests of six Ukrainians and one US citizen took place on March 13, 2026, shortly after the Russia deal was signed (https://www.thedefensenews.com/NIA-Arrests-6-Ukrainians-and-1-US-Citizen-Over-Alleged-Weapons-and-Drone-Training-for-Insurgent-Groups-Targeting-India/).
The US citizen appears to be a CIA operative from the description available – “Matthew Aaron Van Dyke, born in Baltimore, Maryland USA, holds a master’s degree in security studies from Georgetown University’s Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service. He initially travelled across the Middle East and North Africa as a documentary filmmaker and motorcycle traveller.” He was also involved in several conflict zones including Libya, Iraq, Syria, and Ukraine. He and his Ukrainian friends were involved in training Mizo rebels in drone warfare and had distributed AK 47 guns and Starlink terminals.
The National Intelligence Agency (NIA) filings show that the accused persons were in direct touch with Mizo insurgents (https://nagalandpost.com/nia-arrests-6-ukrainians-1-us-citizen-for-insurgency-activities/). They had been operating between Myanmar and India for several months and had contacted ethnic war groups whom they trained. Apparently fourteen Ukrainians (not just the six arrested) entered India on tourist visas on different dates. It is also alleged that they brought a huge consignment of Drones from Europe via India and then to Myanmar. To the best of our knowledge, no official explanation has been provided by the embassies of either the US or Ukraine. The Indian government too has not made any statement about this in Parliament.
Crippling local currencies
Drones are just one way of promoting insurrection. A more effective one is by weaponizing money. This is evident from the ‘confession’ of Scott Bessent, US secretary of the treasury. He said, on more than one occasion, that the US actually helped engineer public dissent against the Iranian government (https://www.ndtvprofit.com/world/us-engineered-dollar-shortage-to-trigger-iran-protests-what-treasury-chiefs-remark-means-for-tehran-11001209).
This was the first time that the US admitted its role. It created a “dollar shortage” for Iran causing the Iranian Rial to depreciate against the dollar which soared in value. That resulted in a severe dollar shortage, which in turn caused the Rial to collapse and stoked hyperinflation. CNBC’s chart shows that quite starkly (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/23/iran-economy-war-charts-rial-oil-strait-hormuz-blockade.html)
To escalate disaffection, the US through CIA and Mossad targeted sanctions on banks, oil traders and crypto channels. It disrupted dollar-clearing networks. It also blocked access to correspondent banks. This resulted in fewer dollars coming into Iran – in addition to the sanctions squeeze.
That in turn caused loan defaults which in turn caused many bank failures. The price of the dollar went up. The value of the local currency fell. Hyperinflation was the result, and people began protesting. The CIA then began working through the co-opted leaders to add fuel to the fire.
A few select ‘assets’ had been given guns and were asked to shoot at ordinary Iranians in the protesting crowds, and the blame was put on Iranian security persons. Coordination was done through Starlinks. Elon Musk’s Starlinks enjoy an ugly history of being used to provoke and support CIA-inspired rioters. Some 400 Starlinks were supplied to Venezuela just before the decapitation of Maduro took place. Starlinks played a key role even in Ukraine (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/6/18/ukraines-spiderweb-drone-assault-forces-russia-to-shelter-move-aircraft). They were used, , in collusion with British intelligence, to coordinate the “Spider’s Web” targeting of Russian airbases which housed planes meant for nuclear attacks.
Iran was l;ucky. The Russians and the Chinese helped block Starlink communications, decode the messages, and then Iran targetted the locations of the Starlink systems. The leaders were caught, and imprisoned. Some have been executed. This was one US plotting that failed.
The insurrection failed. But Bessent is still trying (https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2026-05-19/bessent-urges-more-disruption-to-irans-financing-will-review-us-sanctions-list ).
The same old trick
Gradually, it came to be known that the US had used the same gambit in other conflict theatres as well – of devaluing local currencies and injecting hyperinflation to stoke local dissent. It had done this in Iraq, Venezuela and is using this method currently in Cuba as well.
Game replay in India?
India’s rupee too is under pressure. It has been slipping for the past three years. And the RBI, instead of using its reserves to defend the rupee, chose to give away its reserves as dividends to the government of India.
It is against this backdrop one must view the insurrection in all the Northeastern states (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=deHnJ5DoOMw), and in West Bengal. More AK-47s have been discovered in these states even after the arrest of the 6 Ukrainians and the 1 American.
There is incipient insurrection in Ladakh and Jammu & Kashmir. Pravin Sawhney talks about how China has occupied areas of Ladakh because of India’s moves to declare it a union territory. Other media too talk about China’s ire — (https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india/india-rejects-china-pakistan-remarks-on-jk-calls-kashmir-ladakh-integral-parts-of-country/articleshow/131331381.cms?utm_source=copilot.com). Insurrection could be severe in these areas. And then add Punjab which is always a hotbed of incipient revolts. Inflation and hyperinflation further inflame disaffection, and set these states on fire.
The army can fight an external enemy. But when fires begin burning domestically, the flames could become uncontrollable.
Could that explain why India allowed the Russian Army to be stationed in India? Will it act as a Praetorian guard to protect the powerful, while common people get consumed by the flames of communal discord, further instigated by unemployment, poverty and joblessness? The picture is truly alarming.
It is also worth recalling that even the Russians were rendered helpless in Syria when the government continued to do things that the Russians advised against. Eventually, the army was bought off. Bashar and his family had to flee and seek refuge in Russia.
Is India making the same mistakes?
The foreign exchange play
Look at the way investment opportunities have suddenly emerged overseas, temnpting Indian corporations to invest there. Result, foreign exchange flees India. That is akin to capital flight from India.
Look at the government agreeing to buy goods worth $500 billion from the USm and the Rafales from France, even while its fuel abd fertiliser bills soar?
RBI plays the US game
In 2026, the RBI too weakened India’s reserves. It allowed an even higher sum to be transferred to the government. It was a staggering Rs. 2.87 trillion rupees ($29.99 billion) (https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indian-central-bank-approves-287-trillion-rupee-surplus-transfer-government-2026-05-22/). At a time when India should be defending the rupee, it has given away its money to the government. To show that its reserves are still strong, it revalued its gold. Earlier gold was shown at historical prices.
Was this governor compromised? And was his predecessor as well? To understand this, consider how former RBI governors refused to be pressured by the government into giving it higher dividends. Urjit Patel even resigned in protest (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-46506275). So did his deputy, Viral Acharya. However, his successor, Shaktikanta Das, was more obliging. So has been his successor, Sanjay Malhotra.
Coincidentally, Shaktikanta Das was given a sinecure after his retirement (https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/shaktikanta-das-appointed-as-principal-secretary-2-to-prime-minister/article69251109.ece). A new post was created for him — Principal Secretary II to Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Seasoned observers point out that key government officers are not given a sinecure if they do not accommodate the government’s excessive demands. That could explain why earlier RBI governors – Dr. Y.V.Reddy, Dr. D. Subbarao, Dr. Raghuram Rajan, and Dr. Urjit Patel did not get sinecures.
So, will the dividend outgo also contribute to the further collapse of the rupee?
Damning effects
The combined effect of all this has been three-fold
- The balance of trade has worsened
- So has the FDI situation
- The Indian rupee is crashing.
The war that US and Israel have waged on Iran has merely accelerated a process that started almost ten years ago.
“I love Modi”
Ironically, Donald Trump and PM Modi have rediscovered love for each other. Business Standard summed it up quite well — Speaking over speakerphone to hundreds gathered at the embassy event, Trump said, “I love India”, adding “I love the Prime Minister. Modi is great.”
Just listen to the seduction. Quite heart-warming indeed!
But the bonhomie conceals a very dark fact. The largesse shown by India to the US could fan huge flames of insurrection. They come on the heels of equally inflammatory communal talks and acts; further worsened by terrible economic decisions.
If the delimitation exercise is played out the way the current government wants, expect South India also to be on fire.
The Iran episode shows how this was sought to be done. Will India have the tenacity and foresight of Iran to forestall this?
Solution
The situation is not desperate for India – not as yet. There are solutions possible if they are implemented on a war footing.
- India has to get huge amounts of investments and thus create jobs urgently. That will douse some of the flames.
- Reverse the dividend flow from the RBI to the government. India will need the funds to defend the rupee. That will slow down inflation/hyperinflation.
- Stop fanning communal and linguistic fires. They threaten to disintegrate India wrecking the dreams that leaders like Sardar Patel, who did a commendable job in ensuring the unification of India.
- Stay off education – because that is where the future for India will lie (https://bhaskarr.substack.com/p/the-one-eyed-vision-of-ncert) . Unfortunately the government has made a mess of education in just ten years. Look at what has happened to CBSE exams (https://theprint.in/feature/19-student-hacked-cbses-osm-portal-vulnerabilities/2942305/). Also consider the mess with the NEET exams (https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/no-lesson-learnt-from-past-neet-mess-sc-slams-nta-to-monitor-process/articleshow/131317254.cms).
- Find a way to stop outflow of forex – the consequences of not doing this will be disastrous.
Today, the spectacle we see has the Viksit Bharat story in tatters. No cause for chest themping either. All that is left is the spectre of collapse and pieces. As mentioned above, the situation can be remedied. But the big question is whether the government will have the political will to do this. It has trapped itself. And the US may actually make India its 52nd state.
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Do watch our latest podcast on the causes that have made India and prime minister Modi panic. You can view it at https://youtu.be/SEFasTFA-bM
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WE have our podcast on India’s security. Listen to Lt Col Sodhi and Parjanya Bhatt as they converse on India’s security and its neighbourhood. You will find it at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-GPrMeclUXg
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We have been interviewed by a Japanese broadcaster on how India is coping with the effects of the war on Iran and on India’s decision to increase import duties on gold. The broadcast in in Japanese. But if you still want to watch it do go to timeline 18:00 at https://youtu.be/Fl-JKiuk3j4?list=PLhoNlZaJqDLYzzdn9qvyt4au5nhhKfSL3&t=1129
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Finally, do view our News Behind the News this week:
– Capital markets crashing
– The rotten CBSE
– Unemployment gets worse
https://www.youtube.com/live/wqUPSmoDUEM?si=V6fj8QbJE8t0nCTQ
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