Ceasefire talks are fine – But what about Gaza?

By R N Bhaskar

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The world has seen two major ceasefire talks.  One has just been concluded between India and Pakistan.  The US is believed to have been the mediator, though neither India nor Pakistan admits it (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UBpE_Lm9j0A).

The second — between Ukraine and Russia — is proving to be extremely vexatious.  It is sought to be mediated by the Group of Four, or the “Coalition of the Willing” as they have chosen to call themselves. The four include UK, Germany, France and Poland (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=srF2T8P-BP4).Economy watchers have watched with amusement the manner in which Volodymyr Zelenskyy, president of Ukraine, successfully flitted with dexterity from NATO to the US and currently to Europe.  They have watched him cobble together the “the Coalition of the Willing.”

For those unfamiliar with the term “Coalition of the Willing,” it was coined by George Bush – the son – when he wanted to attack Iraq (without UN sanction).  At that time France refused to toe the US line, and it was savagely lampooned.  Germany too did not join. UK, both then and now, remains ever-willing partner in any war that the US wishes to embark upon. Eventually, those countries which agreed to back the US in the messy, illegal, and disastrous war against Iraq were called “The Coalition of the Willing.”  [To understand how repugnant the US sponsored Iraq-war and other wars were  do read the brilliant Nobel award acceptance speech by Harold Pinter titled “Art, Truth & Politics” at https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/literature/2005/pinter/lecture/).

Will Russia agree?

All through April and May 2025, this Coalition has been demanding that Russia agree to a total ceasefire with Ukraine (https://www.msn.com/en-us/politics/government/leaders-of-four-nations-urge-russia-to-agree-to-30-day-ceasefire/ar-AA1EwowO).  At the time of writing this column, Russia agreed to direct talks in Istanbul – but by teams sent by both Russia and Ukraine. Russia has pointed out that each time, the agreement was broken by Ukraine, and it ended by making the country smaller (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/may/15/ukraine-war-briefing-force-putins-hand-nato-leaders-told-in-turkey-as-he-snubs-peace-talks). Initially, Zelenskyy and the Coalition wanted the ceasefire to be declared before the meeting.  Russia refused.

The ‘threat’ given out to Russia —if the ceasefire is not declared — is the imposition of even harsher sanctions and the setting up of a “Tribunal” for investigating Vladmir Putin and his generals for crimes against humanity.  The US has maintained a studied silence.

The tail wants to wag the dog

Macron even tried to threaten Russia.

As of now, Russia has made clear some non-negotiables, which may or may not be discussed at the Istanbul meeting. Of them three are most crucial

1. Russia will retain control and possession of the four oblasts it has conquered. In Ukraine, an oblast is the primary administrative division, often translated as province or region. Ukraine is divided into 24 oblasts, plus one autonomous republic and two cities with special status.  Russia will also retain control of Crimea.
2. Ukraine will not be allowed to join the NATO, either as a full-fledged member or an associate member.
3. Ukraine will not be allowed any military ties with Western powers.

Zelenskyy wants none of these.  Worse, the Coalition wants to continue supplying arms to Ukraine during the proposed ceasefire period of 30 days. That is something Russia will not accept.  It does appear that the Istanbul meeting will be non-conclusive.

Extremely disturbing questions

The irony, that few care to speak of, is that the third ceasefire is not even mentioned. The only country that has been labelled a war criminal along with its Prime Minister and former defence minister is Israel. Shamefully, the Coalition does not make similar demands for a ceasefire between Gaza and Israel, or setting up a tribunal for this war where Israel has  been guilty of ethnic cleansing and genocide, with the US abetting these war crimes.

• Why is the Coalition silent on this massacre? This is despite a UN report dated 5 April 2024 on Israel’s massacre and genocide in Gaza — https://www.un.org/unispal/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/g2404611.pdf.

Then there is the brilliant article (https://www.scmp.com/opinion/article/3309917/western-world-has-already-dug-its-own-grave-gaza-war?module=perpetual_scroll_0&pgtype=article) by Alex Lo titled “The Western world has already dug its own grave in Gaza war”. Lo is a journalist who has also lectured in journalism at the University of Hong Kong.

• He asks, “How many children we will allow to die the most painful and horrific death [in full view of] people who claim to be enlightened . . . [When will they] collectively speak out and say – ‘Enough is enough! Enough blood!’ Those were the words of the late Yitzhak Rabin at the signing of the Oslo Agreement.”

Lo goes on to say, “The most extraordinary censorship is being exercised across many Western countries, but especially in the United States and Germany, to silence anyone who tries to speak out what everyone already knows is going on in Palestine.”

“Silencing the victims’ cries so the killers can continue with the butchery, and criticism is considered racial hate speech against the killers and their apologists. Who does that? asks Lo. “The West cares more about the feelings of the butchers than the lives and limbs of victims. Western ‘civilisation’ now sounds like a contradiction in terms.”

• Unlike the Middle East, Ukraine conflict does not involve the death of women and children on such a massive scale. So, why this silence?
• In Europe, no aid convoys have been blocked. In Gaza, however, medics have been targeted for killing. Starvation has been used as a weapon of war. Children have been targetted by snipers – some shot twice in the head.  Why is the Coalition looking the other way?
• Zelenskyy has even attempted ‘bribing’ the US with a minerals deal. But that too is suspected to be a double deal as the UK was reportedly sold a similar offer. Are there any payoffs for the other Coalition members?

Today, Europe has lost its moral compass.  It has splurged away its money, its values and is wallowing in old animosities, and greed.  One can see a total abandonment of values for which this continent was once respected.

In many ways, UK was always an outlier, a nation of shopkeepers and plunderers (free subscription — https://bhaskarr.substack.com/p/the-inexplicables-in-the-india-uk). But, much more was expected from Germany and France, especially since they publicly shun the Holocaust. Now they are willing to abet the creation of another Holocaust.

Sick men with puffed out chests

There are no answers forthcoming.

But can the Coalition push Russia to do what Zelenskyy wants?  No, not really.  Unless the US agrees to join them, there is no way the Coalition can launch additional sanctions against Russia.  And even if the US does back the coalition, there is no guarantee that they could overwhelm Russia, which – like the US – is a formidable nuclear power.

Consider a chart from a report dated 1 May 2025, by the UK House of Commons Library (https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN02784/SN02784.pdf).  It shows, quite starkly, that Germany, the UK, and France, are all terribly weak compared to the G-7.  In fact, many economists call them the sick men of Europe. There was a time when Germany was the powerhouse of Europe.  Not so anymore.

Protecting US interests, not its own

Germany allowed itself to pursue US interests in the proxy war against Ukraine.  As a result, the German economy is bleeding.  Today, it is in no position to fight a war on its own, or even as part of the Coalition.  It allowed the Nordstream pipelines to be blasted (in contravention of international treaties). It raised not a murmur of protest.  Today, it – along with the others — has allowed Russia to become stronger, and has allowed itself to become weaker (https://asiaconverge.com/2022/09/can-germany-bail-out-the-eu-and-the-world/).

One would have thought that the passing of the baton from Olaf Scholz – under whose watch Germany buckled – to Friedrich Merz would have made this country to pull itself up by the bootstraps. But its willingness to get into another confrontation with Russia will only make it weaker.

Poland too is weak

Poland too is in no position to fight Russia – though old animosities against Russia remain strong and the burden of Ukrainian refugees is beginning to hurt it.  But it too is willing to forsake economic good sense.

getting the past

What is most unfortunate is that Europe and the US seem determined to whitewash the past.

Even today, efforts are underway to reinterpret a promise made, an assurance given — https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/09/11/not-one-inch-america-russia-and-the-making-of-post-cold-war-stalemate-a78760.

When I first looked at the evidence (the story can be found at https://asiaconverge.com/2022/03/the-ukraine-crisis-this-is-the-way-the-world-ends/), I was shocked to discover fact-finding websites telling people that all stories about NATO agreeing not to move eastwards were fake news.  Then I discovered the archives from where the photographs above have been taken.

Between 2022 and now, even the website listing the official archives have been modified subtly.  They now bear the additional title “What Gorbachev Heard.” That is an attempt to make the evidence appear as plain hearsay.   More details and photographs can be found at https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/russia-programs/2017-12-12/nato-expansion-what-gorbachev-heard-western-leaders-early.

The photographs above show Eduard Shevardnadze (USSR), James A. Baker (US), Hans-Dietrich Genscher (FRG), Roland Dumas (France), Douglas Hurd (Great Britain), and Oskar Fischer (GDR) in addition to heads of state Gorbachev, Bush, Genscher, Kohl, Mitterrand, Thatcher, and Major.  Just a couple of days earlier, on February 9, 1990, there was the famous assurance given by U.S. Secretary of State James Baker to Mikhail Gorbachev that NATO would be restrained and it would move “not one inch eastward”.

Attempts to whitewash these discussions continue.

More proof

But a more recent document is now available which confirms the complicity of both the US and Europe in instigating Russia to attack Ukraine.

On 1 February 2008, William Burns (then US ambassador to Russia, and currently director of CIA)  sent a highly classified cable to his government telling it “Nyet means Nyet” (https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/08MOSCOW265_a.html). It warned the US government not to allow NATO to move eastwards and provoke Russia.  He warned that it would lead to a war. The cable was eventually made public by Wikileaks. It then was later picked up by Robert Wade who wrote about it in Le Monde on 15 March 2015 (https://eprints.lse.ac.uk/61428/1/Wade_Ukraine_crisis_is_not_what%20it_seems.pdf). The document confirms the West’s complicity.

Today, the narrative spun by western media glosses over the killings allowed by the US in both Ukraine and the Middle East. As a result, the reputations and economies of both USA and Europe have suffered.

It is appalling, shameful and repugnant that Western leaders could forget such assurances made by their respective countries in 1990. This is especially true for Germany which was a direct beneficiary of those talks – it could unify its East and West territories. Germany’s silence about the massacre in Gaza as well is even mor deafening.

That is the ceasefire the gang of four should be insisting on.

As for Ukraine, Zelenskyy has skillfully played his gambit to remain in power by first going along with NATO.  When it suited him, he wooed Trump.  Now when it suits him, he is wooing the Gang of Four.

Russia is right.  Zelenskyy is not a legitimate spokesperson.  His term as president got over on May 20, 2024.  He has not called for fresh elections by declaring an emergency and remaining a wartime president. He is a person who likes to strut on the world stage, disregardful of how many lives are lost. If he cuts a deal now, some lives will be saved.  Else, he will lose more land, more lives and even the little dignity he has left with him.  And with him will sink the reputations of the Gang of Four as well.

Trump has got one ceasefire right.  It is time to get the other two right as well.  There is an urgent need to work in the interests of humanity, and not politicians who want to make a quick buck.

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