11 May 2026
Trump is befuddled and lost
By RN Bhaskar
Image sourced from https://www.craiyon.com/en
Last week the world heard three narratives – both were economical with the truth. Both centred around Donald Trump, president, USA.
One year spun out was by Peter (Pete) Brian Hegseth secretary, War, USA, and former television personality. He talked about how Iran could not stop ships escorted by US battleships. He also pompously exhorted other countries to join the US in breaking Iran’s control of the strait. It was a story meant for television from a person known to be full of bluster and fanciful stories. The truth can be found in this video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TLKl_IOhQDQ).
Hegseth needs to lie all the time for two reasons. First, he must impress his boss Trump that he is a loyalist. Second, he has to tell the world that the US is winning the war. In fact, just as we explained in an earlier article (https://bhaskarr.substack.com/p/trump-sabotages-the-us), the US is losing.
Another narrative was the attack on the UAE which is now in flames (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/uaes-fujairah-says-fire-breaks-out-petroleum-complex-after-iranian-drone-attack-2026-05-04/). Its oil production stands reduced from 5 million barrels a day to just 500,000. To understand why the UAE remains a target can be found in one of our podcasts (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dAJ7eeaiqVU&t=3s). On Friday, 8 May, there was an exchange of fire again. Iran targeted three US destroyers who were targeting tow Iranian tankers. US attacked Iranian cities. Is the US declared ceasefire over?
A third story is that of Trump He insists that the ceasefire is still in place. And that Ironically, when asked if this means the end of the US announced ceasefire with Iran, he quoted Trump stating that the ceasefire is still in place. He also said that the US military’s “Project Freedom” operation is being paused. It was launched to open the Strait of Hormuz.
Why did Trump make these announcements? One possibility is that he wanted a clean slate when meeting President Xi Jinping on 14 May (though some analysts say that it is possible that the meeting with Xi could even get cancelled). He desperately needs rare earths without which his military cannot produce its weapons. The stock is rapidly depleting. And he wants Chkina to buy his country’s soybeans.
Or it could be that Trump wants to come out of the trap that Israel has created for Trump. It could also mean that Trump is actually thinking of an agreement with Iran. It is fingers crossed for now.
Iran controls Hormuz
Maybe, Trump is beginning to realise that Iran does control Hormuz. Geography, tenacity, and incredible planning for this war for over 20 years have reinforced this simple fact.
Just look at the pictures of the seashore on the Iran side. There is hardly any beach (https://www.youtube.com/shorts/HX9I0uh7ve0). Much of the terrain is flanked by mountains and cliffs. There is no place for troops to hide. Any beach landing will make the troops sitting ducks for snipers. Missiles too can be fired from the mountains. Moreover, almost all the missile launchers are underground, as are the tunnels which transport the missiles from one place to another.
The undersea drones and submarines are unreachable for current US weaponry.
Moreover, after mid-May, the climate in the Middle-East changes. It becomes unbearably hot, and troops will not be able to cope with this. That is why the attack on Iraq was done in the earlier months of the year, not in May. It is worth listening to Scott Ritter on this subject at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2h0VFNRfVOE .
Thus, any blockade of Iran will just not work. A good explanation is provided by Larry Johnson, former analyst at the CIA. Just listen to him from timeline 16:08 to 16:29 at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wGws3SN4HcE . But there are other reasons as well, which we shall analyse next week.
America is bleeding
As we stated earlier, the US has survived and thrived because of three cash cos.
- Arms sales
- Oil sales (both directly and indirectly)
- Sale of IT products and projects.
Stitching all these together is the financial architecture.
- Banks
- Capital markets
- Hedge funds
- Finance companies
- And the fiat dollar
One by one, each of these revenue streams and the financial bonding is coming apart.
Military degradation
Let’s begin with arms. Listen to Scott Ritter, former UN Weapons inspector explain the state of the US arms industry. Go to timeline 25:44 to 16:29 at https://youtu.be/SHndW3XLT0M?si=oSWzKLxGWCF6rkRd, where he says the following: “We are about to enter an arms race where Russia holds all of the advantages already. They have deployed intermediate forces that are unmatched. They have the best strategic nuclear forces in the world, most modern. The United States is confronted by the reality that our bombers don’t work, our missiles are old, and our submarines are ageing out quickly and its going to cost us trillions of dollars to u to fix this problem. Money, we don’t have.”
Look at the way Iran trounced all of US and Israeli technology during the 12-day war. Ditto for the war which began from February 28 this year. The most touted planes of the US were shot down or were rendered inoperable.
Ditto with the way the US (and the European) weaponry supplied to Ukraine. In both war theatres, US military solutions did not overwhelm the enemy. On the contrary, nimbler, and cheaper Iranian, Turkish, Russian, and Chinese technologies have demonstrated their excellence. Moreover, thanks to the way the US thought it could impose tariffs on China, it was deprived access to rare earths. Without this mineral, USA cannot produce military hardware, not even to replenish its depleting armoury.
Result, US finds it extremely difficult to sell its weaponry to others. Even India, after genuflecting to the US and France, is now talking to the Russians, which it should have in the first place.
Oily USA
Then there is oil. The US hit pay dirt when it discovered ways to extract share oil and gas. But there were environmental issues. Trump disdainfully threw out all environmental restrictions and urged the oil industry to drill for more oil (“Drill baby drill”). It thus became the largest producer of oil in the world.
But the US has the smallest of oil and gas reserves among major oil producers in the world. It will run out of oil soon.
That is why it wants new sources of oil. That could be one reason why it has always desired the breakup of Russia. Putin demolished such dreams when he picked Russia up and brought it back to strength after he came to power in end 1999. It would explain the deep hatred the West reserves for Putin.
It would also explain its reckless grab for Venezuela which has large proven reserves. But Venezuelan oil is difficult to both extract and process. Exxon has refused to enter Venezuela for now. But Chevron continues to pump out oil there.
That would also explain why the US wants to trounce Iran. It is the only Middle-East country which does not share its oil production facilities with the US. In every other country, the US (through its corporate entities) has joint production agreements.
That also explains why the US wants to control Syria, and thus control its oil. It could also explain the US’ willingness to go along with Israel and defeat all its neighbouring countries, including Lebanon. The Gaza shore is also rich with oil and gas.
The big blunder
But the US made a big mistake when greed blinded it, and Israel misled it about Iran. It attacked the country (for the third time) on 28 February 2026, even while peace discussions were underway. Both the US and Israel had underestimated Iran’s capabilities and resolve. They thus failed in pulverising Iran during the 12-day war (June 13 to June 24, 2025). They failed in their attempt to stoke an uprising against the Iranian government. Expectedly, they are failing spectacularly in the current war which began on 28 February 2026.
Iran, on the contrary, has refused to play the offensive role. Instead, it has retaliated each time it was attacked. Its responses were swift, meticulously planned, and brilliantly executed. Result: today, Israel is beginning to resemble Gaza. But in its messianic zeal, Israel still wants to go ahead with the war, but through the US. Why Trump pays heed to Israel’s cries is not known (some say it is the Epstein files that Netanyahu controls). But it is also possible that the US wants to use Israel to grab all the oil in the Middle-East.
Even seizing oil tankers has not helped. Seizing them costs money. In one of his rare moments of candour, Trump admitted that he was a pirate. He said, “We … land on top of it and we took over the ship. We took over the cargo, took over the oil. It’s a very profitable business . . . . . We’re like pirates . . . . . We’re sort of like pirates. But we’re not playing games.” (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/may/02/trump-us-navy-pirates-iran-blockade).Except that the piracy itself was becoming expensive.
Plus, the vice-like grip Iran has over the Hormuz Strait has blocked oil supplied to the US, Israel and other unfriendly countries. That has reduced cash inflows to the US.
IT muddle
Gradually, the US has lost its share in IT products too. China has become the technological giant in the world. It has a superior AI offerings, a better GPS, superior armaments, and has even a superior phone from Huawei. Its market shares are climbing. Gradually, for the US, even this revenue stream is likely to become weaker.
Financial quagmire
Ever since the financial meltdown hit the world, US banks have been on the decline. Blackrock is in dire financial straits. It is the largest financial player in the world. It is unwilling to give money back to its investors beyond 5% of the capital (https://www.reuters.com/business/blackrock-limits-withdrawals-private-credit-fund-redemptions-mount-2026-03-06/). One reason is that most of its investments are in regions that are being devastated by war.
This was followed by news that Citadel, one of the biggest hedge funds in the US, is also in trouble (https://theogonyfinancial.com/citadel-faces-mounting-pressure-amid-high-leverage-and-shrinking-liquidity/). View these in the light of the statement by JP Morgan’s chief Jamie Dimon that the state of these financial giants indicate that other cockroaches could soon emerge (https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/oct/14/jp-morgan-jamie-dimon-losses-private-credit-sector).
Finally, there is the growing US debt which has crossed $39 trillion. And there is the US government request that the Congress pass a $1.5 trillion bill for US defence. Finally, the rising cost of oil will undoubtedly please US oil producers but not the American public. Americans are hurting (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-07/gas-prices-hit-record-high-hurting-consumer-spending-ceos-warn )At the time of writing this column, oil prices had already crossed $127. But actual trades are taking place at $200 or more. For instance, Sri Lanka made its oil purchases at $240 a barrel.
Expect Trump to lose votes in the mid-term polls this November, unless he can call off the Iran war. That would weaken him politically, and also allow financial fraud cases against him to get heard.
The trap
Trump’s decision to seek peace with Iran will certainly annoy the Zionist lobby. But Trump is trapped. If he goes ahead with the Zionist lobby’s plan to continue the war against Israel, he will lose money and elections. If he stops the war, he can still call himself an angel of peace.
He is losing popularity rapidly (https://edition.cnn.com/2026/05/05/politics/trump-approval-rating-analysis-vis), and he must stop that.
Additionally, his supporter-base is also disenchanted – if not disgusted – with the US support for Israel. This includes younger generation Jews in the US who believe Israel is a war criminal, and its ministers revel in war crimes and discriminatory laws.
As the image above shows, Itamar Ben-Gvir, Minister of National Security for the State of Israel, proudly displays his birthday cake with the image of a noose. A similar logo decorates his coat lapel. He is triumphant about passing a law that can send Palestinians, not Jews, to the gallows (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pp9sSBLHBos). At his home, he proudly displays his eight criminal convictions and has kept a portrait of a mass murderer in his living room wall for twenty-five years. That disgusts even many Jews in the civilised world.
Had the US got Iran’s oil, Trump might have continued to tolerate Israel. The reward may have been worth the risk of contamination.
But that mirage is vanishing. Even existing revenue streams from oil are rapidly disappearing. The only way for Trump to escape this trap is by jettisoning Israel, and stopping the painful wars with Iran and the Middle East.
The coming weeks should tell us which path Trump will choose.
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The latest podcast is on how Tamil Nadu is growing faster and better than both Maharashtra and Gujarat. The single differentiating factor is social harmony. You can find the podcast at https://youtu.be/nxZMMKowfHk
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